Will Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) take control of Bamako, Mali by 1 June 2026?
Started
Dec 19, 2025 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jun 02, 2026 03:59AM UTC
Closing Jun 02, 2026 03:59AM UTC
Topics
Seasons
Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) is an al-Qaeda affiliate formed in 2017 as a coalition of militant groups operating in the Sahel region. Since September 2025, JNIM has imposed an economic blockade on Bamako, Mali's capital of approximately 3-4 million people, by attacking fuel convoys and cutting supply routes from Senegal and Côte d'Ivoire (Al Jazeera). The blockade has caused severe fuel shortages and blackouts, prompting Western governments to advise their citizens to evacuate (CNN). JNIM predecessor organizations controlled northern Malian cities including Timbuktu in 2012-2013 before French military intervention dislodged them (Responsible Statecraft).
Security analysts estimate JNIM has approximately 6,000 combatants spread across multiple countries, presenting significant logistical challenges for taking and holding a city of Bamako's size (Responsible Statecraft). Mali is currently led by military ruler General Assimi Goita, who came to power through coups in 2020 and 2021, and whose security forces receive support from Russian Africa Corps personnel (Human Rights Watch).
Resolution Criteria:
This question will resolve as “Yes” if JNIM takes control of Bamako on or before 1 June 2026, as reported by credible international news sources.
“Control” means effective military and administrative control of Bamako, including the city center and government functions. JNIM will be considered to have “taken control” of Bamako if any one of the following conditions is met:
- JNIM announcement: JNIM or its leaders publicly announce that they have taken control of or captured Bamako, through official statements, videos, or communications channels
- Malian government acknowledgment: The Malian government or military leadership publicly acknowledges or confirms that JNIM has taken control of Bamako or that the government has lost control of the capital
- International confirmation: Credible international news organizations (such as Reuters, Associated Press, AFP, BBC, Al Jazeera, CNN, The New York Times, The Guardian, France24) report that JNIM has taken military control of Bamako, with confirmation including evidence of JNIM control of the city such as JNIM forces present in the city center, government buildings occupied or abandoned, or government officials evacuated
The following will NOT be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution:
- Continued economic blockade or siege of Bamako without physical occupation
- JNIM attacks within Bamako (such as the September 2024 airport attack) that do not result in sustained control
- Control of suburbs, outskirts, or specific districts of Bamako without control of the city center and government functions
- Negotiations or ceasefire agreements that do not involve JNIM taking physical control
- Speculation or analysis by experts predicting JNIM may take control
- Some form of symbolic presence, temporary raids, or brief incursions
If initial reports are unconfirmed or conflicting, resolution may be delayed to allow for verification.
If JNIM merges with, is absorbed by, or reorganizes into another group before the question end date, actions by the successor organization will count toward resolution if the successor organization maintains JNIM's core leadership or stated objectives and if credible sources identify the successor as continuous with JNIM.