Will any country announce a new national carbon tax or emissions trading system by 31 July 2026?
Started
Nov 04, 2025 02:00PM UTC
Closing Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
Closing Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
Topics
Seasons
Carbon pricing is a key tool for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, with countries implementing either carbon taxes (which levy a fixed price per ton of CO2) or emissions trading systems (ETS, also called cap-and-trade, which set an emissions cap and allow trading of allowances). There are currently 80 carbon pricing instruments worldwide covering 28% of global emissions and generating significant revenue (European Commission). In Europe, 23 countries have implemented carbon taxes, with rates ranging from less than €1 per ton in Ukraine and Poland to over €125 in Sweden, Switzerland, and Liechtenstein (Tax Foundation Europe).
Recent and planned developments show continued expansion of carbon pricing. Japan's parliament enacted legislation in May 2025 making its Green Transformation ETS (GX-ETS) mandatory from fiscal year 2026 for companies emitting over 100,000 tons of CO2 annually, transitioning from the voluntary system that began in 2023 (Carbon Pulse, Carbon Herald). Indonesia plans to introduce auctioning of emissions allowances into its existing ETS in 2026, while Malaysia announced plans to impose a carbon tax starting in 2026 targeting the steel and energy sectors, and Thailand approved a carbon tax of THB 200 per ton (about $6.24) in January 2025 on gasoline and aviation fuel producers (I4CE, Reccessary). The EU is implementing a new emissions trading system (ETS2) for buildings and road transport scheduled to become operational in 2027 (International Carbon Action Partnership).
Resolution Criteria:
This question will resolve as "Yes" if, by 11:59 PM ET on 31 July 2026, any country announces a new national carbon tax or emissions trading system.
Qualifying announcements must meet all of the following:
- New system: A carbon pricing mechanism must be new for that country. Transitioning from voluntary to mandatory (e.g., Japan's GX-ETS), expanding existing systems to new sectors, or introducing auctioning to existing systems will not count.
- National level: The system must apply nationwide or be administered by the national government. Sub-national (state, provincial, or city-level) or supra-national (e.g., EU-wide systems) entities will not count.
- Carbon tax or ETS:
- Carbon tax: A direct tax on greenhouse gas emissions or carbon content of fuels, levied per ton of CO2 equivalent
- Emissions trading system: A cap-and-trade system that sets an emissions cap and allows trading of emissions allowances
Announcements must be verifiable through credible sources (major news agencies, government websites, or reputable policy organizations like the World Bank or ICAP) reporting on an official government announcement, passed legislation, or published regulations establishing the new system.
The announcement must occur during the forecast period, but actual implementation can occur later. If a system was announced before 4 November 2025, it will not count even if implementation occurs during the forecast period.