Will at least two European NATO members sign new, publicly announced major defense procurement contracts (over €1 billion each) with non-European suppliers by 31 July 2026?
Started
Nov 04, 2025 02:00PM UTC
Closing Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
Closing Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
Seasons
European defense procurement has surged following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with EU member states projected to spend €381 billion on defense in 2025, representing over 2% of GDP for the first time in the European Defence Agency’s records (Defence Agenda). At the June 2025 NATO summit, alliance leaders committed to increasing defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035, split between 3.5% for core defense and 1.5% for resilience measures (NATO). This dramatic increase has driven unprecedented demand for major weapons systems, with European NATO members actively procuring from both European NATO and non-European NATO suppliers to rapidly modernize their forces.
Poland has emerged as the most aggressive acquirer of non-EU defense equipment, signing over $16 billion in contracts with South Korea since 2022 for K2 tanks, K9 howitzers, FA-50 aircraft, and Chunmoo rocket systems, including a $6.5 billion contract for 180 additional K2 tanks signed in July 2025 (Bulgarian Military). Poland has also contracted with the U.S. for $10 billion worth of Apache helicopters in August 2024 (Defense News). The F-35 program represents another major avenue for European procurement from the U.S., with Romania signing a contract in November 2024 worth an estimated $6.4 billion, while Germany, Finland, Czech Republic, and others have committed to multi-billion euro F-35 acquisitions (Wikipedia). Meanwhile, NATO’s Support and Procurement Agency signed a $5.5 billion multinational contract in January 2024 for up to 1,000 Patriot missiles from U.S. suppliers for Germany, Netherlands, Romania, and Spain (NATO).
Resolution Criteria:
This question will be resolved using reporting from reputable news sources (including defense news sources like Defense News or Breaking Defense), and official announcements from NATO agencies or national defense ministries. The question will resolve as “Yes” if, by 11:59 PM ET on 31 July 2026, at least two European NATO member countries sign new, publicly announced major defense procurement contracts valued at over €1 billion each with non-European suppliers.
For the purposes of this question, “European NATO members” are defined as NATO member states geographically located in Europe, including Turkey. Examples of non-European suppliers include companies headquartered outside of Europe (including their European subsidiaries) and the governments of non-European countries (such as the United States, South Korea, Israel, or Japan).
A “new” contract is one signed during the question period (after the question opens and until 31 July 2026), not amendments, extensions, or follow-on tranches to existing framework agreements signed prior to the question period. Each contract must be valued at over €1 billion in the initial publicly announced contract value. Multinational contracts facilitated through NATO agencies would count if they involve at least one European NATO member and one non-European NATO member supplier and meet the €1 billion threshold.
The following will not be sufficient for resolution:
- Letters of intent, memoranda of understanding, or framework agreements without binding contract signatures
- Options or future tranches within existing contracts
- Leasing agreements under €1 billion in total value
- Contracts for maintenance, training, or sustainment services unless they are part of a larger procurement contract meeting the threshold