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Geopolitical Security

Closing

Jan 01, 2026 04:59AM UTC (20 days)

Tracking conflict, diplomacy, and strategic developments that shape international stability and regional order.

Question

Crowd Forecast

Will Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces retake control over Khartoum city by 31 March 2026?

Closing Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC · 42 · 75

3%

Chance

Will at least two European NATO members sign new, publicly announced major defense procurement contracts (over €1 billion each) with non-European suppliers by 31 July 2026?

Closing Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC · 25 · 48

82%

Chance

How many of the 19 G20 member countries will have recognized the State of Palestine before 1 Feb 2026?

Closing Feb 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 37 · 69

What will the U.S. Space Force budget be in the FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 49 · 153

If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 139 · 812

When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 120 · 795

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 247 · 1567

1%

Chance

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Closing Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC · 208 · 1922

Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

Closing Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC · 158 · 1644

Geopolitical Security

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Will Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces retake control over Khartoum city by 31 March 2026?

3%

Will at least two European NATO members sign new, publicly announced major defense procurement contracts (over €1 billion each) with non-European suppliers by 31 July 2026?

82%

How many of the 19 G20 member countries will have recognized the State of Palestine before 1 Feb 2026?

What will the U.S. Space Force budget be in the FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act?

If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?

When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

1%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

Geopolitical Security

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3%

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