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Geopolitical Security

Closing

Jan 01, 2027 05:01AM UTC (11 months)

Tracking conflict, diplomacy, and strategic developments that shape international stability and regional order.

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Crowd Forecast

Will the Houthis (Ansarallah movement) attack a commercial shipping vessel on the Red Sea between 19 December 2025 and 31 July 2026, inclusive?

Closing Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC · 15 · 21

76%

Chance

Will Hezbollah and its March 8 coalition allies win a majority of seats in the 2026 Lebanese Parliamentary elections?

Closing Jun 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC · 9 · 13

26%

Chance

Will Hezbollah and/or Amal Movement candidates maintain control of all Shia-majority seats in the 2026 Lebanese Parliament?

Closing Jun 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC · 7 · 12

74%

Chance

Will Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) take control of Bamako, Mali by 1 June 2026?

Closing Jun 02, 2026 03:59AM UTC · 13 · 23

5%

Chance

Will the United Nations Security Council adopt a resolution related to the conflict in Sudan by 1 May 2026?

Closing May 02, 2026 04:00AM UTC · 19 · 33

41%

Chance

Who will win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Closing Jun 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC · 18 · 53

Will Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces retake control over Khartoum city by 31 March 2026?

Closing Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC · 58 · 163

1%

Chance

Will any country announce a new national carbon tax or emissions trading system by 31 July 2026?

Closing Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC · 39 · 103

63%

Chance

Will at least two European NATO members sign new, publicly announced major defense procurement contracts (over €1 billion each) with non-European suppliers by 31 July 2026?

Closing Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC · 36 · 110

89%

Chance

Will Western Asia and North African intra-regional exports equal or exceed 24% of total exports in 2025 or 2026, according to UNCTAD data?

Closing Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC · 35 · 102

21%

Chance