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Geopolitical Security

Closing

Jan 01, 2027 05:01AM UTC (11 months)

Tracking conflict, diplomacy, and strategic developments that shape international stability and regional order.

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Crowd Forecast

Will China, Russia, the U.S., or the EU publicly announce new economic or trade sanctions that specifically target a state-owned oil or gas entity in Egypt, Jordan, or the United Arab Emirates (UAE) by 30 June 2026?

Closing Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC · 55 · 182

2%

Chance

Will a new multilateral security agreement involving at least three Middle East and North Africa (MENA) states (excluding Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Israel) be publicly announced by 30 June 2026?

Closing Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC · 57 · 246

4%

Chance

Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?

Closing Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC · 118 · 1098

15%

Chance

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Closing Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC · 213 · 2121

Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

Closing Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC · 164 · 1784