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Question
Crowd Forecast
In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?
Closing
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
·
2
·
2
8%
Chance
What will be the percent increase in the number of disinformation cases discussing Germany, originating in pro-Kremlin media, between 1 October 2024 and 30 September 2025, compared to the same period one year prior?
Closing
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
·
7
·
10
What will be the risk index score for the perceived threat posed by Russia to Germany in the 2026 Munich Security Report?
Closing
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
·
8
·
12
What will be Germany’s net perception of Ukraine in the 2026 Munich Security Report?
Closing
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
·
7
·
11
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?
Closing
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
·
123
·
351
1%
Chance
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Closing
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
·
110
·
513
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
Closing
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
·
82
·
385
Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?
Closing
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
·
83
·
554
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