How it works:

Step

You submit a forecasting question you’d like to see published on RFI (read the guidance for question submissions).

Step

You, admins, and other forecasters collaborate and iterate on the question details to make sure it's well formed and includes answer options for all possible outcomes.

Step

Forecasters vote on suggested questions to surface topics that are of most interest to the community.

Step

An admin will make a final decision and publish the best questions for forecasting.

Pending Published Archived
Pinned Question Votes Question Author Status Submitted
/ Last Edited
Pinned Question
1
Will AI cause a major catastrophic event that kills millions of people within the next ten years?
crimeforecast
Open 06/10/25 06:44pm 06/30/25 08:07pm
Pinned Question
1
Will the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index, a measure of US residential home costs, exceed 350 by July 2026?
joshloughman
Open 06/07/25 03:55pm 06/21/25 05:12am
Pinned Question
0
What is the likelihood that either Russia or China will use an anti-satellite weapon to permanently disable (kinetically or non-kinetically) a U.S. or ally satellite on or before January 1, 2027?
Willard
Open 06/04/25 10:06pm 06/06/25 10:20pm
Pinned Question
0
Will advanced countries institute educational programs to teach universal basic human needs, like Human Ecology, before 2030, to enable people to survive poverty, climate change, global disruption to supply chains, and aging populations?
Pattern
Open 05/18/25 04:09pm 06/02/25 12:09pm
Pinned Question
-1
Good day, //* NOTE: This is a GPT generated template of GJO question format /// Absolutely, Brian. Here's a refined version of your draft with a few enhancements for clarity, neutrality, and consistency with Good Judgment Open (GJO) standards. I’ve streamlined some legal phrasing, tightened resolution criteria, and ensured neutrality in describing the Trump administration’s position. GJO Forecasting Question Draft Main Forecast Question By June 30, 2025, will the U.S. Supreme Court rule in favor of the position that federal courts lack the authority to issue nationwide injunctions in the consolidated birthright citizenship cases?
username-deleted 4981
Open 05/15/25 03:31pm 05/19/25 04:09am
Pinned Question
-3
Will Iran reach an agreement with the US on Saturday?
Hitech-co
Open 04/12/25 12:05pm 05/14/25 11:26pm
Pinned Question
4
Will Eur-Usd reach 1,30 versus Euro by 2026 end?
Dunkerbeck
Open 03/21/25 05:46pm 06/08/25 06:08pm
Pinned Question
3
Will Democratic values and principles in the United States re-emerge with greater force after Trump's second term?
Santiago-Carrasco-Scherer
Open 03/20/25 06:44pm 07/03/25 01:11am
Pinned Question
4
Will Russia adhere to the terms of a ceasefire?
butterpickle
Open 03/17/25 11:28pm 06/19/25 09:38pm
Pinned Question
5
Will the US seize control of the Panama Canal militarily within the next year?
Wormwood97
Open 03/14/25 05:51pm 06/19/25 09:38pm
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