Review Question
Within the next 48 months, what is the probability that Mexico will establish an “intermediate security force” and approve a security interior framework regulating its operation, under any of the following models:
• Scenario A: Integrated within the Ministry of Defense (SEDENA)
• Scenario B: Under the National Guard with civilian command and quasi-military discipline
• Scenario C: A new specialized civilian corps inspired by international models (e.g., French Gendarmerie, Italian Carabinieri, Spanish Guardia Civil, Chilean Carabineros)
| Answer | Initial Probability |
|---|---|
| A: Within SEDENA | 12% |
| B: Under National Guard | 18% |
| C: New civilian corps | 5% |
Author
Description
Resolution Criteria
• Creación institucional: Publicación en el Diario Oficial de la Federación de un nuevo marco legal que defina la estructura nacional, el régimen disciplinario y las funciones diferenciadas de la policía ordinaria y las Fuerzas Armadas.
• Marco legal: Aprobación y publicación de una ley federal o reformas constitucionales que regulen la intervención interna de dicha fuerza, incluyendo límites, supervisión, temporalidad y coordinación intergubernamental.
• Plazo: Ambos eventos ocurren en un plazo de 48 meses.
• Exclusiones: Cambios nominales sin nueva base legal, ampliación de atribuciones de las Fuerzas Armadas sin diseño intermedio de fuerzas, o transferencias organizativas sin mando/estatuto diferenciado.
Baseline Estimate
• Aggregate probability (48 months): 35%
• Scenario distribution:
o A: Within SEDENA: 12%
o B: Under National Guard: 18%
o C: New civilian corps: 5%
Signal Scoring
Signal Category Event Points Adjustment
Legislative/Judicial Initiative with positive committee report +5 +3 pp
Approval in one chamber +8 +5 pp
Bicameral approval sent to Executive +12 +7 pp
Supreme Court ruling enabling limited schemes +7 +4 pp
Supreme Court invalidation −10 −6 pp
Public Opinion/Politics +5 pp trust increase in GN/Army (12m) +4 +2 pp
Executive/governors commit to intermediate force +6 +3 pp
Major scandal eroding legitimacy −6 −3 pp
Violence/Pressure +10% YoY homicide increase (2q) +6 +3 pp
Regional crisis (≥3 states >50/100k) +5 +3 pp
−10% YoY homicide decrease (4q) −6 −3 pp
Capacity/Design Budget +10% earmarked for force +6 +3 pp
Special disciplinary regime in GN +8 +5 pp
Civilian command transfer in federal security +5 +3 pp
Consolidation of military command −5 −3 pp (but +3 for Scenario A)
International Cooperation Cooperation agreements for gendarmerie-style design +4 +2 pp
Specialized training programs +3 +2 pp
Adjustment rule: Each +5 points ≈ +3 percentage points; each −5 points ≈ −3 percentage points. Normalize totals to 0–100%.
International Models
• French Gendarmerie
• Italian Carabinieri
• Spanish Guardia Civil
• Chilean Carabineros
Starts
Dec 06, 2025 03:26AM UTC
Closes
Jan 06, 2026 03:26AM UTC
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