Review Question
When will the government shutdown end?
| Answer | Initial Probability |
|---|---|
| Less than 7 | 20% |
| Between 7 and 13, inclusive | 20% |
| Between 14 and 30, inclusive | 20% |
| Between 31 and 90, inclusive | 20% |
| More than 90 | 20% |
Because I had to choose between integers and decimals I have set this up as "days from now" but ideally the bins would be date ranges, similar to the "When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?" question.
I think these ranges are good (if it were posed as # of days from today) but I don't have strong opinions on bin intervals or how many bins. I do think the question is both important and appropriate for forecasting.
I've never proposed a question before; I don't know if I have the skills or information to compose the fully detailed, legally-binding type language I am used to seeing in RFI questions, e.g. links and definitions and sources needed to define the shutdown "end." I'm assuming that if the admin team likes the question, they will flesh out those details.
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