belikewater

The parties are still too far apart. I think there's a <0.5% chance.

I'm increasing my forecast very slightly because there are indications that the RSF may open an eastern front, around its southeastern border with Ethiopia, roughly from Yabus to Ad Damazin, in addition to its western front to the southwest of Khartoum.

Military cargo flights from the UAE to Ethiopia have apparently ramped up a lot in the past couple months, and one analyst speculates that this is to supply RSF rebels (see the whole thread on X). There have also been flights that likely brought senior defense officials and military leaders.

However, even if the RSF develops huge momentum, the timeframe for this question is very short.

While the SAF have many friends, including Egypt, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Iran, the RSF still could gain the upper hand, with a lot of help from the UAE, a little help from South Sudan, and a small welcome mat from Ethiopia.

I'm decreasing my forecast (a little late) because there's almost no time left.

I initially thought an agreement involving Syria could be likely, but one seems less likely at the moment. But lots of other options are always possible. For example, it should not be forgotten that Tunisia and Algeria signed a military cooperation agreement in October, and it's not inconceivable that another party could join that agreement. It wouldn't be Morocco, obviously, but a month ago, Tunisia's PM said that Libya and Tunisia share national security interests. And the UAE is already involved with many countries in the region. Still, it is hard to picture trilateral or larger arrangements in the time frame of this question (6+ months), as they tend to involve so many negotiations, and I haven't seen public declarations that any such negotiations are in the works.

One thing I wonder about is the Bab al-Mandeb area. A separatist group backed by the UAE has taken over a lot of Yemen, including Mayun Island in the Bab al-Mandeb. I wonder whether they might be considered or this question, and whether they might seek some security arrangement with Djibouti. The Yemeni rebel group now also reportedly control the island of Socotra, near Somalia. As Djibouti has security arrangements with Somalia, an arrangement involving Djibouti, Somalia, the Yemeni separatists, and the UAE might be reasonable. I don't know the stance of the Yemeni group with respect to their African neighbors, though, and the separatist group might not be considered a "country" for the purposes of this question.

Egypt also signed a security agreement with Oman in July. And other arrangements are in place or in various stages of discussion.

There are a lot of public bilateral arrangements, and probably a lot of secret arrangements. I don't think it would be that implausible to add an additional partner to such an arrangement or to start a new one, but I don't think that's most likely to happen in the time frame of this question.

My forecast has been too high on this question. With Israel continuing attacks in Gaza, I think the situation is still too raw for countries to join the accords.

>=70% looks very clear at this point.

I do think they're headed to Togo soon, following recent meetings between officials from Togo and Russian officials in Moscow, but the forecast period is almost over.

The RSF just just took control of the Heglig oilfield in South Kordofan province. Reuters reports that, "Heglig, which lies along Sudan's southern border, houses the main processing facility for South Sudanese oil, which makes up much of the revenue for South Sudan's government. ... Oil is transported through the Greater Nile pipeline system to Port Sudan on the Red Sea for export, making the Heglig site vital both for Sudan's hard-currency earnings and for South Sudan, which is landlocked and relies almost entirely on pipelines through Sudan. The war that erupted in April 2023 between the Sudanese army and the RSF has repeatedly disrupted South Sudan's oil flows, which before the conflict averaged between 100,000 and 150,000 barrels per day for export via Sudan."

The RSF will likely leverage this control with South Sudan to make deals for arms and supplies to flow through South Sudan. Any such deals could potentially reduce their dependency on the UAE, but it's more likely that the UAE will help them to market the oil.

The RSF also just conducted an attack in Kalogi, which is near El Obeid and is getting closer to Khartoum. And while there's a lot of distance between Kalogi and Khartoum, a lot of it is open space. While it wouldn't be easy to take all of this territory, it's likely easier than trying to take some densely populated area.

The time frame remains very tight, though, and the resolution criteria for this question are very strict.