Confirmed previous forecast
-0.034726
Relative Brier Score
828
Forecasts
455
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 21 | 62 | 885 | 828 | 1637 |
| Comments | 11 | 60 | 1013 | 985 | 1910 |
| Questions Forecasted | 17 | 17 | 39 | 33 | 73 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 4 | 24 | 482 | 455 | 1543 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Estonia
1%
(0%)
Latvia
1%
(0%)
Lithuania
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than 62%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 62% but less than 66%
1%
(0%)
More than or equal to 66% but less than 70%
99%
(0%)
More than or equal to 70% but less than 74%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 74%
Why do you think you're right?
The October (i.e. part of Q4) reading for Colombia just came in at a comfortable level of 64.4 (data explorer); for comparison, their 2024 yearly reading was at 62.9.
I have updated accordingly the summary table below.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Very black swans only.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
41%
(-2%)
Less than $350 million
38%
(+2%)
More than or equal to $350 million but less than $450 million
16%
(0%)
More than or equal to $450 million but less than $550 million
4%
(0%)
More than or equal to $550 million but less than $650 million
1%
(0%)
More than or equal to $650 million
Why do you think you're right?
40M were added on Dec 1 (the 4th biggest seed round in 2025 so far), bringing the 2025 US total to 164.7M.
Linear extrapolation now gives 164.7/11*24=359M, just barely into the 2nd bin.
Adjusting accordingly.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
As before (FWIW, the Fierce Biotech tracker, last updated on Dec 4, has not registered this round).
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
82%
(-2%)
Less than $1 billion
14%
(+2%)
More than or equal to $1 billion but less than $1.2 billion
3%
(0%)
More than or equal to $1.2 billion but less than $1.4 billion
1%
(0%)
More than or equal to $1.4 billion but less than $1.6 billion
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $1.6 billion
Why do you think you're right?
40M were added on Dec 1 (the 4th biggest seed round in 2025 so far), bringing the 2025 total to 310.4M.
Linear projection now gives 310.4/11*24=677M, still into the lowest bin.
Adjusting accordingly.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
As before (FWIW, Fierce Biotech, last updated on Dec 4, has not registered this round).
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than 62%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 62% but less than 66%
1%
(0%)
More than or equal to 66% but less than 70%
99%
(0%)
More than or equal to 70% but less than 74%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 74%
Why do you think you're right?
The October (i.e. part of Q4) reading for Japan just came in at a record high of 80.3 (data explorer); their previous monthly all-time high was for 3 months in 2025 (May-July) at 80.2.
I have updated accordingly the summary table below.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
As before (very black swans only).
Files
New Badge
New Badge
Star Commenter - Nov 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
4%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 1, 2025 to Jun 1, 2027
96%
(0%)
No
Dec 1, 2025 to Jun 1, 2027
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(0%)
Yes
96%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Apparently there is no actual progress: Putin says Russia disagrees with parts of US plan to end Ukraine war - BBC, Dec 4
Why might you be wrong?
As before.