Will the European “Coalition of the Willing” deploy forces to Ukraine in 2025?
Started
May 05, 2025 04:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
The "Coalition of the Willing" is an international alliance formed to support a potential peace deal to end Russia's war on Ukraine. The UK and French-led coalition, announced by British Prime Minister Keir Starmer on 2 March 2025, aims to facilitate peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia while providing security guarantees that would ensure any ceasefire or peace deal remains stable (Telegraph). Members also include Australia, Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Canada, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Turkey, and Ukraine. NATO and EU officials are also represented.
As of April 10, 2025, defense ministers from participating nations stated that operational plans for a potential force were "well developed," though the timeline and specific implementation details remain under discussion (Euronews). The coalition has established "three areas of work": continued military support for Ukraine, creation of a reassurance force for deployment on Ukrainian soil, and strengthening Europe's own defense capabilities (Euronews).
The proposed "reassurance force," according to Macron, would not function as a traditional peacekeeping mission along the front lines but would instead position troops in strategic locations across Ukraine, including cities, ports, and critical infrastructure as a deterrent against future Russian aggression. Military experts have suggested that such a force could initially consist of three combat brigades requiring approximately 15,000-20,000 personnel in-country with an additional 30,000-40,000 troops for sustained rotation, though the exact size remains debated (War on the Rocks). Recent reports suggest European efforts may be shifting from direct troop deployment toward alternative security arrangements due to political and logistical constraints, as well as anticipated opposition from both Russia and the United States (Reuters).
Resolution Criteria:
This question will resolve positively if, according to major news reporting, the “Coalition of the Willing” deploys military forces into Ukraine on or before 31 December 2025.
- For the purposes of this question, “deploys military forces” means the physical presence in Ukraine or in Ukrainian airspace of military personnel or assets operating under the command or as a designated mission of the Coalition of the Willing.
- Coalition naval vessels in Ukrainian territorial waters would count, but coalition vessels outside of Ukrainian territorial waters would not count.
- Interceptors launched from vessels in international waters to intercept Russian missiles or drones targeting sites in Ukraine would count.
- Military personnel sent solely as part of a diplomatic or other non-military mission would not count.
- The sale or donation of weapons or other military assets from the Coalition of the Willing to Ukraine to be operated by Ukrainian forces would not count for resolution.
- Deployments by coalition member countries in a capacity outside of the coalition framework (e.g., unilateral national deployments, NATO, or EU missions) would not count for resolution.