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Russia-Ukraine War

Closing

Jan 01, 2026 04:59AM UTC (21 days)

Forecasting events related to the war in Ukraine and broader dynamics between Russia and Europe.

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Crowd Forecast

Will the EU import at least 19 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia in the second half of 2025?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 36 · 63

0%

Chance

Will the EU import at least 15 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia in any quarter of 2025?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 117 · 521

1%

Chance

Will at least one European country or the European Union (EU) collectively commit to providing Ukraine with HIMARS-compatible rocket artillery systems or functional substitutes by 31 December 2025?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 88 · 423

18%

Chance

How much more military aid will European countries allocate to Ukraine compared to the U.S. between 24 January 2022 and 31 December 2025?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 46 · 252

Will the European “Coalition of the Willing” deploy forces to Ukraine in 2025?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 128 · 591

1%

Chance

If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 139 · 809

When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 119 · 787

In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 142 · 978

5%

Chance

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Closing Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC · 208 · 1919

Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

Closing Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC · 158 · 1641