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Russia-Ukraine War

Closing

Jan 01, 2026 04:59AM UTC (6 months)

Forecasting events related to the war in Ukraine and broader dynamics between Russia and Europe.

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Crowd Forecast

Will the EU import at least 15 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia in any quarter of 2025?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 71 · 160

2%

Chance

Will at least one European country or the European Union (EU) collectively commit to providing Ukraine with HIMARS-compatible rocket artillery systems or functional substitutes by 31 December 2025?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 55 · 128

65%

Chance

How much more military aid will European countries allocate to Ukraine compared to the U.S. between 24 January 2022 and 31 December 2025?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 25 · 77

Will the European “Coalition of the Willing” deploy forces to Ukraine in 2025?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 77 · 184

1%

Chance

If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 122 · 453

When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 87 · 363

How many German-language disinformation cases originating in pro-Kremlin media will there be between 1 October 2024 and 30 September 2025?

Closing Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC · 107 · 603

In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 125 · 641

7%

Chance

What will be the risk index score for the perceived threat posed by Russia to Germany in the 2026 Munich Security Report?

Closing Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC · 57 · 477

What will be Germany’s net perception of Ukraine in the 2026 Munich Security Report?

Closing Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC · 57 · 444