DimaKlenchin

This is basically an evergreen question, so sticking close to the base rate makes sense. For the "this time is different" take, I can't decide if Trump's intransigence, in the short term, is a catalyzing or inhibiting factor. So it's just that for now - the base rate. 

A naive base rate going back to 2012 gives ~11 launches per year. From Poisson distribution probability of zero launches in two months is then ~16%. Going up a little further from that because they do have something in need of testing and they also surely feel that they need to remind Trump that that N Korea is not Venezuela and not even Iran. 

This is probably some kind of numerology but it's the best I can do for now: 

Not sure what causes this saw pattern but it is what it is. The latest official numbers seem to be here. The ratios of Q2 to the Q4 of the previous year are 0.914, 0.920, 0.924, 0.900. Seem pretty consistent. Taking the average of these and "predicting" Q2-2026 gives  35.48T or +3.8% YoY. This is also reasonably consistent with the last four values of Q2 YoY: 3.9, 3.9, 5.7, 3.9 for 2025-2022, respectively. 

Based on these and the general idea that China can't possibly grow forever at 5% annual, I think we can be reasonably confident that +5% will not happen in Q2-2026. 

Perhaps simplemindedly, I find that setting a record two years in a row is unlikely. Additionally, I naively look at 2018 which is the most similar to 2026 in January and it's clear that the average for March was higher in 2018 than in 2025. Low confidence at this point, obviously, but I know I want to be below 50% on this one. 

Of the new batch of 12 questions for 2026, this one is the only one that feels straightforward enough to not needing hours of research: Yes, she will because there is no sensible alternative. There are marginal probabilities for a coup of at least three kinds but that's about it. Elections are not in the cards in the next 3 months.