Confirmed previous forecast
-0.028132
Relative Brier Score
531
Forecasts
204
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 21 | 54 | 560 | 531 | 1211 |
| Comments | 10 | 34 | 552 | 535 | 703 |
| Questions Forecasted | 20 | 31 | 73 | 64 | 121 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 1 | 6 | 222 | 204 | 578 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
85%
(0%)
Yes
15%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
0%
(0%)
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
0%
(0%)
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
0%
(0%)
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
100%
(0%)
Not before 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Affirming at <0.5%. For 2025, it's over since Ukraine categorically rejected any territorial concessions.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
as before
Files
New Badge
Power Forecaster - Nov 2025
Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
New Badge
Star Commenter - Nov 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Affirming
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Affirming
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Moldova
0%
(0%)
Armenia
0%
(0%)
Georgia
0%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Why do you think you're right?
Affirming
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
84%
(-8%)
U.S. Entity
38%
(-2%)
Non-U.S. Entity
Why do you think you're right?
Reducing both a bit. I did not appreciate enough how much the Grok 4 figure is basically a hand waiving and how much behind it are other models that seems to be pretty comparable performance-wise.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
as before
Files
Why do you think you're right?
By now, needs 6.4% growth in ~22 months to resolve positively. I don't think this is possible unless the mortgage rates drop down to 5% or lower, which seems unlikely. E.g., the consensus GDP growth in 2026 is ~1.8%.
Why might you be wrong?
If any of my explicit and implicit assumptions and calculations used to make the forecast prove significantly incorrect, I will likely be wrong. In the same vein, if there are biases that I have not accounted for and/or did not correct or corrected for improperly, I will likely be wrong too.