Two more weeks, absolutely nothing changed. Affirming as very unlikely.
-0.028132
Relative Brier Score
546
Forecasts
206
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 12 | 57 | 566 | 546 | 1226 |
| Comments | 10 | 39 | 563 | 549 | 717 |
| Questions Forecasted | 11 | 31 | 70 | 64 | 121 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 8 | 217 | 206 | 580 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
same as before
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Europe allocates the same amount or less than the U.S.
0%
(0%)
More than €0 but less than €10 billion
0%
(-2%)
At least €10 billion but less than €20 billion
42%
(-18%)
At least €20 billion but less than €30 billion
58%
(+20%)
€30 billion or more
Why do you think you're right?
See @PeterStamp's post on October update. According to Kiel, the US spent literally zero on military support to Ukraine in April-October, which of course categorically cannot be true but that's our resolution source and it is what it is. The trend for the EU support is down but it seems that over the next two months it won't be so much down as would be required to land in the second highest bin.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
same as before
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(-8%)
Yes
95%
(+8%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Little time left but an announcement is still possible.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
same as before
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than 62%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 62% but less than 66%
0%
(-1%)
More than or equal to 66% but less than 70%
100%
(+1%)
More than or equal to 70% but less than 74%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 74%
Why do you think you're right?
< 0.5% by now.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
same as before
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(-3%)
Yes
98%
(+3%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Updating for passage of time
Files
Why might you be wrong?
.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 4,499
1%
(0%)
Between 4,500 and 4,999, inclusive
98%
(0%)
Between 5,000 and 5,499, inclusive
1%
(0%)
Between 5,500 and 5,999, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 6,000
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
0%
(0%)
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
0%
(0%)
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
0%
(0%)
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
100%
(0%)
Not before 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Affirming
Files
Why might you be wrong?
.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
98%
(+38%)
Yes
2%
(-38%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
>20 sounds very likely given the developments.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
as before
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Not seeing any news or changes. Affirming high uncertainty for now.
Why might you be wrong?
same as before