By now, needs 6.4% growth in ~22 months to resolve positively. I don't think this is possible unless the mortgage rates drop down to 5% or lower, which seems unlikely. E.g., the consensus GDP growth in 2026 is ~1.8%.
-3.518917
Relative Brier Score
1214
Forecasts
580
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 6 | 55 | 561 | 534 | 1214 |
| Comments | 6 | 36 | 555 | 539 | 707 |
| Questions Forecasted | 5 | 31 | 73 | 64 | 121 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 3 | 8 | 219 | 206 | 580 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Geopolitical Security,
Emerging Technology,
Iran: Threats & Influence,
Russia-Ukraine War,
Quickfire Forecasts
Most Active Topics:
Iran Nuclear Program,
Iran-VNSAs,
Open RAN,
Emerging Tech - AI,
Africa
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
24%
Yes
76%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If any of my explicit and implicit assumptions and calculations used to make the forecast prove significantly incorrect, I will likely be wrong. In the same vein, if there are biases that I have not accounted for and/or did not correct or corrected for improperly, I will likely be wrong too.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
6%
(+3%)
Yes
94%
(-3%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Yikes. The clashes have resumed. Doubling my forecast just in case to see how this ceasefire situation develops.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
as before
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(-2%)
Yes
95%
(+2%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Passage of time. Effectively, only 3 weeks left
Files
Why might you be wrong?
as before
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
85%
(0%)
Yes
15%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
0%
(0%)
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
0%
(0%)
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
0%
(0%)
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
100%
(0%)
Not before 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Affirming at <0.5%. For 2025, it's over since Ukraine categorically rejected any territorial concessions.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
as before
Files
New Badge
Power Forecaster - Nov 2025
Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
New Badge
Star Commenter - Nov 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Affirming
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Files
Why do you think you're right?
After adjustment for seasonality (summer peak, winter trough with an amplitude of ~2.5%), it seems more likely that I thought. But I do think that the slowdown is coming, so staying above the crowd for now.
Why might you be wrong?
as before