PeterStamp
made their 39th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Europe allocates the same amount or less than the U.S.
0% (0%)
More than €0 but less than €10 billion
0% (-2%)
At least €10 billion but less than €20 billion
40% (-9%)
At least €20 billion but less than €30 billion
60% (+11%)
€30 billion or more
Why do you think you're right?

Status quo (data up to 31 October, just published; again different type of reporting): “Total geographic Europe” (sorry, chose "rest of the world" and subtracted about 5b for New Zealand, Canada or so from this) around 88b, “United States” 64,62 (no change here at all, again) under "Miltary Allocation".

+ about $24b for Europe now, with 2 months to go. Change "only" + about 6b from the last report. Same thing again in the next report would be right at the edge between two highest bins. Lots of news about increased EU efforts, so I´m going in for  "more likely to get into highest bin".

https://www.ifw-kiel.de/publications/ukraine-support-tracker-data-20758/

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