Will the Cambodia-Thailand conflict result in at least 20 deaths between 4 November 2025 and 15 January 2026, inclusive?
Started
Nov 04, 2025 02:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 16, 2026 05:00AM UTC
Closing Jan 16, 2026 05:00AM UTC
Topics
Seasons
The Cambodia-Thailand border crisis escalated into armed conflict on 24 July 2025, resulting in the deadliest violence between the two nations in over a decade (Wikipedia). The five-day conflict stemmed from a long-standing territorial dispute over border demarcation, particularly in areas surrounding the ancient temples of Preah Vihear and Ta Muen Thom, which trace back to ambiguities in the 1907 Franco-Siamese treaty (Britannica). The fighting left at least 38-48 people dead and displaced over 300,000 civilians before a ceasefire was brokered on 28 July 2025 through Malaysian mediation, with support from the United States and China (Asia Times).
Since the July truce, there have been multiple landmine incidents injuring Thai soldiers, with Thailand accusing Cambodia of breaching the ceasefire by planting new mines and Cambodia denying these allegations (Al Jazeera). On 6 October 2025, Cambodia’s de facto leader Hun Sen called for a boycott of Thai goods and currency, escalating economic tensions (Asia Times). The Trump administration has pressured both countries to maintain peace as a condition for trade negotiations (Bloomberg). However, Cambodia and Thailand signed the Kuala Lumpur Peace Accord on 26 October 2025 at the ASEAN summit, representing a major diplomatic milestone with commitments to withdraw heavy weapons, establish an ASEAN observer team, and cooperate on removing landmines along the border (Modern Diplomacy).
Resolution Criteria:
This question will be resolved using credible news reports, reports from international organizations such as the United Nations, ASEAN, or other international or humanitarian organizations, or official statements from the governments of Cambodia or Thailand. The question will resolve as “Yes” if credible reports indicate that at least 20 people (civilians and military personnel in either or both countries) have been killed as a direct result of the border conflict between Cambodia and Thailand.
Deaths must be reported and have occurred between 12:00 AM ET on 4 November 2025 and 11:59 PM ET on15 January 2026 to count toward the total, regardless of when the deaths occurred within the specified time period. An exact death toll is not required if credible sources use language clearly indicating the threshold has been met, such as "more than 20," "at least 25," "dozens," or "hundreds." Deaths will be counted cumulatively across all conflict-related incidents occurring between 4 November 2025 and 15 January 2026; all 20 deaths do not need to occur in a single incident.
Deaths from internal civil unrest, accidents, natural causes, or other incidents not directly resulting from the conflict will not count toward the total.
If reports from international organizations (UN, ASEAN, etc.) are available, these will be given priority as neutral sources. If Cambodian and Thai government sources report significantly different death tolls, the higher of the two figures will be used.