Confirmed previous forecast
-0.151251
Relative Brier Score
1615
Forecasts
160
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 30 | 111 | 1685 | 1615 | 2238 |
| Comments | 9 | 50 | 677 | 614 | 691 |
| Questions Forecasted | 29 | 45 | 93 | 89 | 97 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 1 | 7 | 182 | 160 | 319 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
40%
(0%)
Less than $350 million
38%
(+3%)
More than or equal to $350 million but less than $450 million
15%
(+3%)
More than or equal to $450 million but less than $550 million
5%
(-3%)
More than or equal to $550 million but less than $650 million
2%
(-3%)
More than or equal to $650 million
Why do you think you're right?
Time
Files
Why might you be wrong?
N/A
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
35%
(+3%)
Less than $350 million
42%
(+2%)
More than or equal to $350 million but less than $500 million
15%
(0%)
More than or equal to $500 million but less than $650 million
5%
(-5%)
More than or equal to $650 million but less than $800 million
3%
(0%)
More than or equal to $800 million
Why do you think you're right?
Passage of time, curren trends
Files
Why might you be wrong?
N/A
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
75%
(+10%)
Less than $1 billion
18%
(-4%)
More than or equal to $1 billion but less than $1.2 billion
4%
(-4%)
More than or equal to $1.2 billion but less than $1.4 billion
2%
(-2%)
More than or equal to $1.4 billion but less than $1.6 billion
1%
(0%)
More than or equal to $1.6 billion
Why do you think you're right?
Passage of time and thinking that AI-related investments will absorb most of the money for the time being.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
N/A
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
62%
(0%)
Yes
38%
(0%)
No
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 14, 2025 to Jun 14, 2027
95%
(0%)
No
Dec 14, 2025 to Jun 14, 2027
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(0%)
Moldova
1%
(0%)
Armenia
1%
(0%)
Georgia
1%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Why do you think you're right?
Time
Why might you be wrong?
N/A