I don’t think any of these scenarios will play out over the rest of this month, but then again, we’ve still got all of 2026 ahead of us, right? (right? I'm never certain with these kind of questions) The EGX30 has gained nearly 40% this year and year-on-year inflation stood at 12.5% in October, which is relatively steady compared with the previous months. A default doesn’t seem to be on the table at this point, with both S&P and Fitch assigning Egypt a ‘B’ credit rating and a Stable Outlook as of late 2025.
-0.154393
Relative Brier Score
1574
Forecasts
158
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 21 | 101 | 1703 | 1574 | 2197 |
| Comments | 9 | 46 | 664 | 601 | 678 |
| Questions Forecasted | 21 | 45 | 94 | 89 | 97 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 2 | 6 | 189 | 158 | 317 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
We’ve seen dramatic reversals in the past where years of gains were wiped out in a matter of days or weeks. So, while it’s not very likely, it’s still within the realm of possibility.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
(-5%)
Less than $21.0 billion
45%
(+5%)
More than or equal to $21.0 billion but less than $22.5 billion
12%
(0%)
More than or equal to $22.5 billion but less than $23.5 billion
8%
(0%)
More than or equal to $23.5 billion but less than $25.0 billion
5%
(0%)
More than or equal to $25.0 billion
Why do you think you're right?
The current requested figures are hovering close to the 21.0 billion threshold, with both upward and downward pressures at play. Then there’s the reconciliation issue to consider. I’m shifting slightly from the first to the second bin, but otherwise sticking with my original forecast, mainly because I don’t know.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I just don't know enough about budgetting procedures.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
52%
(0%)
Yes
48%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(-7%)
Yes
95%
(+7%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Passage of time
Files
Why might you be wrong?
N/A
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
18%
(0%)
Yes
82%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
18%
(0%)
Yes
82%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
82%
(0%)
U.S. Entity
70%
(0%)
Non-U.S. Entity
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(-12%)
Yes
90%
(+12%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
There are no signs of negotiations around such an agreement, and since it would involve at least three countries and likely more, it seems unlikely it could be kept under wraps. The MENA countries, even setting Israel aside, are far from unified, and it’s not clear they could agree on what exactly a security arrangement would cover. The most obvious scenario would be a defense pact directed against Israel, but that still feels like a step too far, especially for countries in the region that are, in practice, quietly cooperating with Israel on various issues. The United States would also strongly oppose any coalition openly targeting Israel.
That said, if Israel continues to act in a hegemonic and aggressive way toward a broad group of neighbors, a future security agreement aimed at counterbalancing that behavior can’t be entirely ruled out.
Iran could be another focus, but there’s been a noticeable thaw in relations between Gulf states and Tehran. A security pact directed at Iran probably wouldn’t help that process. Besides, if such a deal were going to happen, it likely would have materialized years ago. So at this point, it doesn’t seem particularly likely.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
There might be some kind of more limited security cooperation arrangement between a few MENA countries.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
This seems so unlikely that I’m not sure why the question is even being raised. The remaining G20 countries will probably be careful not to antagonize the U.S.
Why might you be wrong?
I might be misreading the global political landscape, in which case I’d probably be better off taking up knitting instead of trying to forecast global affairs.