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Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 24 | 104 | 1706 | 1577 | 2200 |
| Comments | 9 | 46 | 664 | 601 | 678 |
| Questions Forecasted | 24 | 45 | 94 | 89 | 97 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 1 | 6 | 189 | 158 | 317 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
How much more military aid will European countries allocate to Ukraine compared to the U.S. between 24 January 2022 and 31 December 2025?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Europe allocates the same amount or less than the U.S.
0%
(0%)
More than €0 but less than €10 billion
8%
(0%)
At least €10 billion but less than €20 billion
50%
(0%)
At least €20 billion but less than €30 billion
42%
(0%)
€30 billion or more
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(0%)
Yes, 3GPP will adopt and integrate O-RAN Alliance specifications
95%
(0%)
No, the O-RAN Alliance will continue to develop specifications independently of 3GPP
1%
(0%)
No, the O-RAN Alliance will stop developing specifications without being integrated into 3GPP
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
19
1%
(-1%)
18
1%
(-2%)
17
98%
(+3%)
16 or fewer
Why do you think you're right?
This seems so unlikely that I’m not sure why the question is even being raised. The remaining G20 countries will probably be careful not to antagonize the U.S.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I might be misreading the global political landscape, in which case I’d probably be better off taking up knitting instead of trying to forecast global affairs.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
I don’t think any of these scenarios will play out over the rest of this month, but then again, we’ve still got all of 2026 ahead of us, right? (right? I'm never certain with these kind of questions) The EGX30 has gained nearly 40% this year and year-on-year inflation stood at 12.5% in October, which is relatively steady compared with the previous months. A default doesn’t seem to be on the table at this point, with both S&P and Fitch assigning Egypt a ‘B’ credit rating and a Stable Outlook as of late 2025.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
We’ve seen dramatic reversals in the past where years of gains were wiped out in a matter of days or weeks. So, while it’s not very likely, it’s still within the realm of possibility.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
(-5%)
Less than $21.0 billion
45%
(+5%)
More than or equal to $21.0 billion but less than $22.5 billion
12%
(0%)
More than or equal to $22.5 billion but less than $23.5 billion
8%
(0%)
More than or equal to $23.5 billion but less than $25.0 billion
5%
(0%)
More than or equal to $25.0 billion
Why do you think you're right?
The current requested figures are hovering close to the 21.0 billion threshold, with both upward and downward pressures at play. Then there’s the reconciliation issue to consider. I’m shifting slightly from the first to the second bin, but otherwise sticking with my original forecast, mainly because I don’t know.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I just don't know enough about budgetting procedures.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
52%
(0%)
Yes
48%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(-7%)
Yes
95%
(+7%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Passage of time
Files
Why might you be wrong?
N/A
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
18%
(0%)
Yes
82%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
18%
(0%)
Yes
82%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files