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Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 22 | 100 | 1688 | 1585 | 2208 |
| Comments | 10 | 45 | 668 | 605 | 682 |
| Questions Forecasted | 19 | 45 | 94 | 89 | 97 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 2 | 6 | 186 | 159 | 318 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will China, Russia, the U.S., or the EU publicly announce new economic or trade sanctions that specifically target a state-owned oil or gas entity in Egypt, Jordan, or the United Arab Emirates (UAE) by 30 June 2026?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
62%
(0%)
Yes
38%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
(0%)
Yes
80%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
35%
(+23%)
Yes
65%
(-23%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Five deaths already.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
N/A
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
12%
(+7%)
Yes
88%
(-7%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
I was a bit too fast with lowering my forecast.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
N/A
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(-7%)
Yes
95%
(+7%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Time
Files
Why might you be wrong?
N/A
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
8%
(0%)
Yes
92%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
95%
(+13%)
U.S. Entity
70%
(0%)
Non-U.S. Entity
Why might you be wrong?
N/A
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
19
1%
(-1%)
18
1%
(-2%)
17
98%
(+3%)
16 or fewer
Why do you think you're right?
This seems so unlikely that I’m not sure why the question is even being raised. The remaining G20 countries will probably be careful not to antagonize the U.S.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I might be misreading the global political landscape, in which case I’d probably be better off taking up knitting instead of trying to forecast global affairs.
Files
This seems so unlikely that I’m not sure why the question is even being raised
Amen to that.
Will any additional G20 member state recognize the State of Palestine before 1 Feb 2026? would at least leave enough room for uncertainty in order to make the question interesting, despite its short time horizon...
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Europe allocates the same amount or less than the U.S.
0%
(0%)
More than €0 but less than €10 billion
8%
(0%)
At least €10 billion but less than €20 billion
50%
(0%)
At least €20 billion but less than €30 billion
42%
(0%)
€30 billion or more
Confirmed previous forecast
Files