Confirmed previous forecast
No Scores Yet
Relative Brier Score
0
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 40 | 112 | 1652 | 124 | 2424 |
| Comments | 18 | 38 | 627 | 41 | 762 |
| Questions Forecasted | 38 | 52 | 108 | 52 | 120 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 4 | 9 | 154 | 10 | 334 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
4%
(0%)
Moldova
1%
(0%)
Armenia
1%
(0%)
Georgia
1%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Estonia
1%
(0%)
Latvia
1%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
52%
(0%)
Yes
48%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
(0%)
Yes
80%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Badge
New Badge
Star Commenter - Jan 2026
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(-3%)
Less than 70
20%
(-15%)
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
52%
(+17%)
Between 80 and 89, inclusive
18%
(+3%)
Between 90 and 99, inclusive
5%
(-2%)
More than or equal to 100
Why do you think you're right?
Recalculated
Files
Why might you be wrong?
N/A
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
45%
(-10%)
Yes
55%
(+10%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Adjusting after reading comments
Files
Why might you be wrong?
N/A
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files