Forecasted Questions
Will the EU import at least 15 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia in any quarter of 2025?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(16 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(16 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 19, 2025 03:09PM UTC
(27 days ago)
Nov 19, 2025 03:09PM UTC
(27 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 100% | 99% | +1% | +0% |
Will the EU import at least 19 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia in the second half of 2025?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(16 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(16 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 19, 2025 03:10PM UTC
(27 days ago)
Nov 19, 2025 03:10PM UTC
(27 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 3% | -3% | +2% |
| No | 100% | 97% | +3% | -2% |
Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
20 Forecasts
20 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 23, 2025 02:32PM UTC
(23 days ago)
Nov 23, 2025 02:32PM UTC
(23 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 9% | 18% | -9% | +0% |
| No | 91% | 82% | +9% | +0% |
Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?
Forecast Count:
23 Forecasts
23 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(16 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(16 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 23, 2025 02:36PM UTC
(23 days ago)
Nov 23, 2025 02:36PM UTC
(23 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Togo | 1% | 4% | -3% | -1% |
| Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations | Answer was correct | |||
Will a new multilateral security agreement involving at least three Middle East and North Africa (MENA) states (excluding Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Israel) be publicly announced by 30 June 2026?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 23, 2025 02:42PM UTC
(23 days ago)
Nov 23, 2025 02:42PM UTC
(23 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 15% | 9% | +6% | -4% |
| No | 85% | 91% | -6% | +4% |
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
26 Forecasts
26 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 23, 2025 07:10PM UTC
(23 days ago)
Nov 23, 2025 07:10PM UTC
(23 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 0% | 3% | -3% | +0% |
| Latvia | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
| Lithuania | 2% | 3% | -1% | +0% |
Will the U.S. federal government enact legislation that substantively regulates or authorizes regulation of artificial intelligence systems or their development before 1 January 2026?
Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts
11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(16 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(16 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 23, 2025 10:33PM UTC
(23 days ago)
Nov 23, 2025 10:33PM UTC
(23 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 100% | 99% | +1% | +0% |
Will government agencies in the U.S., EU, or UK classify mirror biology research under dual-use oversight mechanisms by 31 December 2030?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 24, 2025 05:27PM UTC
(22 days ago)
Nov 24, 2025 05:27PM UTC
(22 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 80% | 45% | +35% | +0% |
| No | 20% | 55% | -35% | +0% |
Will scientists successfully create a synthetic cell from chemically synthesized components by 1 January 2035?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 28, 2025 03:15PM UTC
(18 days ago)
Nov 28, 2025 03:15PM UTC
(18 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | 10% | -5% | +0% |
| No | 95% | 90% | +5% | +0% |
How many of the 19 G20 member countries will have recognized the State of Palestine before 1 Feb 2026?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Feb 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 29, 2025 03:39AM UTC
(17 days ago)
Nov 29, 2025 03:39AM UTC
(17 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| 17 | 1% | 0% | +1% | -1% |
| 16 or fewer | 99% | 99% | +0% | +0% |