RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will an AI-enabled cyber-attack, attributed to a state actor, cause significant disruption to critical national infrastructure in any G20 country before 1 July 2026?

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 28, 2026 06:41AM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	22%	17%	+5%	-4%
No	78%	83%	-5%	+4%

Will China's year-over-year GDP growth rate for Q2 2026 equal or exceed 5.0%, according to the National Bureau of Statistics of China?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 28, 2026 08:48AM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	24%	29%	-5%	-5%
No	76%	71%	+5%	+5%

Will at least two European NATO members sign new, publicly announced major defense procurement contracts (over €1 billion each) with non-European suppliers by 31 July 2026?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 28, 2026 04:47PM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	90%	89%	+1%	+4%
No	10%	11%	-1%	-4%

Will the United Nations Security Council adopt a resolution related to the conflict in Sudan by 1 May 2026?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
May 02, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 28, 2026 08:05PM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	33%	45%	-12%	-12%
No	67%	55%	+12%	+12%

Will a U.S. or non-U.S. entity train an artificial intelligence model at least 10^27 computational operations (FLOPs) before 1 June 2027?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 29, 2026 12:28AM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
U.S. Entity	84%	85%	-1%	+0%
Non-U.S. Entity	38%	55%	-17%	+0%

Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
31 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 29, 2026 12:28AM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Moldova	5%	5%	+0%	+0%
Armenia	0%	2%	-2%	+0%
Georgia	0%	3%	-3%	+0%
Kazakhstan	0%	1%	-1%	+0%

Will Delcy Rodríguez be President of Venezuela on 30 April 2026?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Apr 30, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 29, 2026 09:37PM UTC
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	95%	89%	+6%	-2%
No	5%	11%	-6%	+2%

Will the average Arctic sea ice extent for March 2026 be the lowest on record for that month according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC)?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 31, 2026 05:01PM UTC
(2 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	37%	35%	+2%	-25%
No	63%	65%	-2%	+25%

Will North Korea conduct a missile test between 1 February 2026 and 31 March 2026, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 31, 2026 08:59PM UTC
(2 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	91%	93%	-2%	+4%
No	9%	7%	+2%	-4%

Will China conduct military exercises within 24 nautical miles of Taiwan's shore between 1 February and 31 July 2026?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 02, 2026 03:41AM UTC
(13 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	74%	78%	-4%	+0%
No	26%	22%	+4%	+0%

DimaKlenchin

Dima Klenchin

About: