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Iran: Threats & Influence
Closing
Jan 01, 2026 04:59AM UTC
(1 year)
Forecasting questions related to Iran's nuclear development, foreign relations, and influence on violent non-state actors.
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Iran Nuclear Program (11)
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Iran-VNSAs (5)
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Question
Crowd Forecast
Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or offensive missile-related facility in the next 6 months?
Closing
May 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
·
70
·
310
62%
Chance
Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?
Closing
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
·
96
·
470
8%
Chance
Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?
Closing
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
·
93
·
576
29%
Chance
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?
Closing
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
·
78
·
525
0%
Chance
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
Closing
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
·
155
·
1334
19%
Chance
In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?
Closing
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
·
73
·
550
8%
Chance
Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?
Closing
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
·
112
·
786
0%
Chance
Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?
Closing
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
·
113
·
786
2%
Chance
Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?
Closing
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
·
61
·
534
0%
Chance
Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?
Closing
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
·
88
·
852
1
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