https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=886221420594696
I found this to be an insightful perspective from Gordon Corera, that the West largely views the Russia vs NATO dynamic as binary -- either war or peace, with "war" meaning all-out, potentially nuclear war. This perspective made more sense during cold-war, when every country on the Eastern Flank was a member either of NATO or the Warsaw Pact, and both sides believed that direct conflict might too easily escalate into mutually assured destruction.
But since Putin ascended to power, he has shown again and again that he subscribes to the view that grey war / hybrid conflict, even directly with the West, is a legitimate and useful tool of power projection and statecraft.
Translating this into advice for fellow forecasters who believe there is only a 0-10% chance that Russia would launch an offensive cyber-attack against NATO member state infrastructure that causes kinetic damage:
- Its important to listen carefully to experts like Gordon Corera, and even more so to political leaders from Eastern Flank countries like Donald Tusk, Petr Pavel, Alexander Stubb, Kaja Kallas, etc, who all see the threat of Russian cyberattacks against their infrastructure as serious, credible, and in many cases ongoing. I just don't see how their reality translates into the range of extremely low forecasts I'm seeing from expert forecasters here. Clearly Russia has no problem conducting physical sabotage, and clearly Russia has significant offensive cyber capabilities, so what's the logic behind the conclusion that Russia would never use its cyber capabilities to cause kinetic damage?
On December 9, the US DOJ issued an indictment charging a Ukrainian citizen for her role in conducting two cyber-attacks against US critical infrastructure, working for cyber group (CARR) that was founded, funded, and directed by Russia's GRU. Both cyber-attacks occurred in 2024 and caused kinetic damage.
The first attack was in April 2024, against water utilities in Texas, California, and other states, and resulting in "damage to controls and the spilling of hundreds of thousands of gallons of drinking water."
The second cyber-attack was in November 2024 -- which falls within the time window of this question (which started on October 4, 2024) -- against a meat processing facility in Los Angeles, resulting in "the spoiling of thousands of pounds of meat and triggering an ammonia leak in the facility."
https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/justice-department-announces-actions-combat-two-russian-state-sponsored-cyber-criminal
https://www.epa.gov/newsreleases/foreign-national-indicted-and-extradited-united-states-role-two-russia-linked-cyber
Once again this is clear evidence that the GRU (and other Russian security entities) are actively conducting cyber-attacks against US and NATO infrastructure with the intent to cause kinetic damage. Cyber- attacks like these and the other ones that I and others have cited strongly suggest to me that Russia does not believe that cyber-attack against NATO infrastructure would trigger NATO to invoke Article V. Given disunity within NATO these days, Russia is likely correct in this assumption.
In my opinion, the only reason the 2nd attack doesn't trigger a "yes" resolution to this question is because it was against the food processing industry/infrastructure rather than against energy or transportation infrastructure.
Unfortunately, attribution and resolution in cyber attacks may come years after the event. Or maybe never. @geoffodlum makes a great point. When the Trump administration hardly spares a day without belittling our allies, the Article V commitments mean nothing
However in this year's National Defense Authorization Act, Congress prohibited the withdrawal of US troops from Europe without Congressional authorization. And Ukraine and The Baltic Security Initiative were funded albeit at reduced levels.
While these attacks are ongoing, wouldn't one expect such an attack to occur in conjunction with a major military operation. Isn't the declared willingness of NATO to retaliate a deterrent?
These attacks increase in frequency and intensity and I am going to re evaluate my forecast.
Exclusive: US suspends some efforts to counter Russian sabotage as Trump moves closer to Putin - https://www.reuters.com/world/us-suspends-some-efforts-counter-russian-sabotage-trump-moves-closer-putin-2025-03-19/
The attack did not involve transportation or energy infrastructure. Little solace. otherwise it qualifies. so far they have not taken down a power plant, since Ukraine in 2015. so far ....