Confirmed previous forecast
-0.546067
Relative Brier Score
614
Forecasts
79
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 20 | 73 | 626 | 614 | 1699 |
| Comments | 3 | 13 | 318 | 305 | 629 |
| Questions Forecasted | 19 | 21 | 38 | 37 | 74 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 3 | 6 | 88 | 79 | 369 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Show more
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
(0%)
Yes
85%
(0%)
No
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
0%
(0%)
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
0%
(0%)
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
0%
(0%)
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
100%
(0%)
Not before 2026
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
(0%)
Yes
80%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Togo
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 15, 2025 to Jun 15, 2027
99%
(0%)
No
Dec 15, 2025 to Jun 15, 2027
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Moldova
1%
(0%)
Armenia
1%
(0%)
Georgia
1%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files