117th
Accuracy Rank

Plataea479

Steven Goldblatt

0.184881

Relative Brier Score

617

Forecasts

79

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Forecasting Activity
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Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 23 76 622 617 1702
Comments 6 16 316 308 632
Questions Forecasted 20 21 38 37 74
Upvotes on Comments By This User 3 6 84 79 369
 Definitions
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Russia suspected of hacking European ferry with ‘remote control’.


https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/12/17/russia-hacking-european-ferry-remote-control-software/


no attribution and unlikely by French signals Intel..maybe help from 5 eyes but the GRU or SVR are not going to cross this kinetic line.

Putin goals

A expansion of Russian territory agriculture capacity and population ..

by any means necessary 

against Ukraine continued bombardment of key infrastructure..Korean War sappers in essence human waves against 600km manning 1000 Line of contact.

NATO

dividing NATO 

to get the US out of NATO by dividing US and rest of NATO, ie maneuvered Trump. into a position where he mediates between the EU and Russia and says that in National Security Strategy. Pskov agreed with this strategy on Putin behalf

New US security strategy aligns with Russia's vision, Moscow says - BBC News https://share.google/iqc9JvGOuo0c4amnL

dividing nato countries against themselves covert and overt support for Reform UK, National Rally, AFD, in Bulgaria and actually caused cancelling Rumania first round.

Constant disinformation falsehood on his themes, and favored candidate 

and constant maybe 5000 attacks  on EU infrastructure a day and UK and US

Europe thinks the unthinkable: Retaliating against Russia – POLITICO https://share.google/J4NR703kF5VHfD7Te

From past experience since 2015, only against utilities and internet shut down in Estonia 2008 the first DNS attack and 2015 most of Kiev infrastructure.

They have yet to cross this redline but Putin is constantly pushing on all levers and as the attack above indicates this is very very close to the criteria here 

It's a red line 

If it's crosed EU will retaliate with offense cyber attacks and may  do anyway for repeated drone flyovers 

So no need now unless it's time for war with NATO by invasion of  Balts.

and it's almost impossible to attribute to  the GRU or SVR as opposed to Ukrainian traitors hired by them ..all acts of sabotage and drones impossible to ascertain with 99 reliability..

Russian hybrid threats: Council sanctions twelve individuals and two entities over information manipulation and cyber attacks - Consilium https://share.google/CquBVvIfcEjoqeTAN

case of attribution by EU to GRU Kaliningrad 

so no but it's always possible as a freak accident but no such accident since beginning of war.



            

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Why might you be wrong?
Attribution and Invasion of Balt occurs.
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