RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2030 05:00AM UTC
(4 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 25, 2025 08:26AM UTC
(11 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	7%	-7%	+0%
No	100%	93%	+7%	+0%

If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?

Forecast Count:
22 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 25, 2025 08:26AM UTC
(11 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 30 days	91%	67%	+24%	+1%
30 days	1%	6%	-5%	+0%
31-60 days	1%	6%	-5%	+0%
61-90 days	1%	5%	-4%	+0%
91 days or more	6%	16%	-10%	-1%

Will scientists successfully create a synthetic cell from chemically synthesized components by 1 January 2035?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 25, 2025 08:28AM UTC
(11 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	10%	-5%	+0%
No	95%	90%	+5%	+0%

Will scientists be able to assemble a ribosome in vitro, composed entirely of synthetic proteins and RNA, without the use of cell-derived materials by 2030?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 25, 2025 08:28AM UTC
(11 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	20%	36%	-16%	+0%
No	80%	64%	+16%	+0%

Will the U.S. federal government enact legislation that substantively regulates or authorizes regulation of artificial intelligence systems or their development before 1 January 2026?

Forecast Count:
19 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2025 01:31PM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
No	100%	99%	+1%	+0%

Will a new multilateral security agreement involving at least three Middle East and North Africa (MENA) states (excluding Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Israel) be publicly announced by 30 June 2026?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2025 01:40PM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	11%	-10%	-2%
No	99%	89%	+10%	+2%

Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
28 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2025 01:40PM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	17%	-12%	-1%
No	95%	83%	+12%	+1%

Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?

Forecast Count:
37 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2025 01:43PM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Togo	0%	4%	-4%	+0%
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations		Answer was correct

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?

Forecast Count:
36 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 02, 2025 06:11PM UTC
(3 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Dec 2, 2025 to Jun 2, 2026	Jan 2, 2026	2%	-1%	+0%
No	99%	Dec 2, 2025 to Jun 2, 2026	Jan 2, 2026	98%	+1%	+0%

Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
21 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 02, 2025 06:13PM UTC
(3 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Dec 2, 2025 to Jun 2, 2026	Jan 2, 2026	1%	-1%	+0%
No	100%	Dec 2, 2025 to Jun 2, 2026	Jan 2, 2026	99%	+1%	+0%

Plataea479

Steven Goldblatt

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