RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will the European “Coalition of the Willing” deploy forces to Ukraine in 2025?

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(16 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 02, 2025 06:17PM UTC
(14 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
No	100%	99%	+1%	+0%

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
38 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(16 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 02, 2025 06:22PM UTC
(14 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Dec 2, 2025 to Jun 2, 2026	Jan 2, 2026	1%	-1%	+0%
No	100%	Dec 2, 2025 to Jun 2, 2026	Jan 2, 2026	99%	+1%	+0%

If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?

Forecast Count:
23 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(16 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 15, 2025 05:58PM UTC
(16 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 30 days	91%	68%	+23%	0%
30 days	1%	5%	-4%	0%
31-60 days	1%	5%	-4%	0%
61-90 days	1%	5%	-4%	0%
91 days or more	6%	16%	-10%	0%

Will the U.S. federal government enact legislation that substantively regulates or authorizes regulation of artificial intelligence systems or their development before 1 January 2026?

Forecast Count:
20 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(16 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 15, 2025 05:58PM UTC
(16 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	1%	-1%	0%
No	100%	99%	+1%	0%

Will a new multilateral security agreement involving at least three Middle East and North Africa (MENA) states (excluding Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Israel) be publicly announced by 30 June 2026?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 15, 2025 05:58PM UTC
(16 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	10%	-9%	+0%
No	99%	90%	+9%	+0%

Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
22 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(16 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 15, 2025 05:59PM UTC
(16 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Dec 15, 2025 to Jun 15, 2026	Jan 15, 2026	1%	-1%	0%
No	100%	Dec 15, 2025 to Jun 15, 2026	Jan 15, 2026	99%	+1%	0%

Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
29 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 15, 2025 06:12PM UTC
(16 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	10%	18%	-8%	+0%
No	90%	82%	+8%	+0%

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?

Forecast Count:
37 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(16 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 15, 2025 06:12PM UTC
(16 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Dec 15, 2025 to Jun 15, 2026	Jan 15, 2026	1%	+0%	+0%
No	99%	Dec 15, 2025 to Jun 15, 2026	Jan 15, 2026	99%	+0%	+0%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
44 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 15, 2025 06:13PM UTC
(16 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Estonia	1%	3%	-2%	0%
Latvia	1%	2%	-1%	0%
Lithuania	1%	3%	-2%	0%

Will scientists successfully create a synthetic cell from chemically synthesized components by 1 January 2035?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 15, 2025 06:13PM UTC
(16 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	10%	-5%	+0%
No	95%	90%	+5%	+0%

Plataea479

Steven Goldblatt

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