Forecasted Questions
Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?
Forecast Count:
27 Forecasts
27 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 26, 2025 06:49AM UTC
(18 days ago)
Oct 26, 2025 06:49AM UTC
(18 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
| No | 100% | 98% | +2% | +0% |
In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?
Forecast Count:
42 Forecasts
42 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 26, 2025 06:49AM UTC
(18 days ago)
Oct 26, 2025 06:49AM UTC
(18 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 7% | Oct 26, 2025 to Apr 26, 2027 | Jan 26, 2026 | 4% | +3% | +0% |
| No | 93% | Oct 26, 2025 to Apr 26, 2027 | Jan 26, 2026 | 96% | -3% | +0% |
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
35 Forecasts
35 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 26, 2025 07:12AM UTC
(18 days ago)
Oct 26, 2025 07:12AM UTC
(18 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | Oct 26, 2025 to Apr 26, 2026 | Nov 26, 2025 | 2% | -2% | +1% |
| No | 100% | Oct 26, 2025 to Apr 26, 2026 | Nov 26, 2025 | 98% | +2% | -1% |
When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?
Forecast Count:
44 Forecasts
44 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 27, 2025 03:15PM UTC
(16 days ago)
Oct 27, 2025 03:15PM UTC
(16 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| 1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| 1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| 1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025 | 0% | 2% | -2% | -2% |
| Not before 2026 | 100% | 98% | +2% | +2% |
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
41 Forecasts
41 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 05, 2025 03:20PM UTC
(7 days ago)
Nov 05, 2025 03:20PM UTC
(7 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moldova | 1% | 6% | -5% | +0% |
| Armenia | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
| Georgia | 1% | 3% | -2% | +0% |
| Kazakhstan | 1% | 1% | +0% | 0% |
Will China, Russia, the U.S., or the EU publicly announce new economic or trade sanctions that specifically target a state-owned oil or gas entity in Egypt, Jordan, or the United Arab Emirates (UAE) by 30 June 2026?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 07, 2025 10:09AM UTC
(6 days ago)
Nov 07, 2025 10:09AM UTC
(6 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
| No | 100% | 98% | +2% | +0% |
Will a new multilateral security agreement involving at least three Middle East and North Africa (MENA) states (excluding Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Israel) be publicly announced by 30 June 2026?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 07, 2025 10:16AM UTC
(6 days ago)
Nov 07, 2025 10:16AM UTC
(6 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 13% | -12% | +0% |
| No | 99% | 87% | +12% | +0% |
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
41 Forecasts
41 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 07, 2025 07:03PM UTC
(5 days ago)
Nov 07, 2025 07:03PM UTC
(5 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 1% | 3% | -2% | +0% |
| Latvia | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
| Lithuania | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?
Forecast Count:
34 Forecasts
34 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 07, 2025 07:07PM UTC
(5 days ago)
Nov 07, 2025 07:07PM UTC
(5 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | Nov 7, 2025 to May 7, 2026 | Dec 7, 2025 | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 100% | Nov 7, 2025 to May 7, 2026 | Dec 7, 2025 | 99% | +1% | +0% |
Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?
Forecast Count:
35 Forecasts
35 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 11, 2025 02:09PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Nov 11, 2025 02:09PM UTC
(1 day ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Togo | 1% | 6% | -5% | +0% |
| Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations | Answer was correct | |||