Confirmed previous forecast
-1.338025
Relative Brier Score
241
Forecasts
81
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 9 | 23 | 610 | 23 | 1742 |
| Comments | 3 | 8 | 284 | 8 | 643 |
| Questions Forecasted | 9 | 11 | 35 | 11 | 74 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 4 | 4 | 81 | 4 | 378 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Badge
Power Forecaster - Jan 2026
Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
New Badge
Star Commenter - Jan 2026
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Will a new multilateral security agreement involving at least three Middle East and North Africa (MENA) states (excluding Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Israel) be publicly announced by 30 June 2026?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(-16%)
Yes
96%
(+16%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
If this question ends 5 months from now it does not appear feasible given time frame.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Some unexpected and announced development
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Moldova
1%
(0%)
Armenia
1%
(0%)
Georgia
1%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files