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 1. Technical and Timeline Obligations (Strongest Evidence)

The Security Council has critical mechanisms at its disposal that are about to expire and must be renewed:

Panel of Experts: Resolution 2791, adopted in September 2025, extended the mandate of the Panel of Experts, which monitors Sudan sanctions, until March 12, 2026.

Critical Threshold: The Council needs to pass a new resolution before mid-March 2026 to ensure the continuity of the monitoring mechanism. Although Russia or China have occasionally abstained, such "technical extension" resolutions are generally adopted without veto.

2. Humanitarian Crisis and Diplomatic Pressure

Post-El Fasher Situation: RSF's capture of El Fasher in October 2025 and subsequent reports of massacres have brought the pressure on the Security Council to its peak regarding the "protection of civilians." This situation could pave the way for less politically controversial resolutions, such as those focusing on "humanitarian corridors" or "accountability."

Veto Dynamics: While Russia's veto in November 2024 demonstrated resistance to politically charged texts like "ceasefires," the technical continuity of sanctions regimes generally has a minimum level of consensus among P5 members.