36th
Accuracy Rank

grainmummy

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-0.056889

Relative Brier Score

266

Forecasts

42

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Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 1 55 266 266 266
Comments 2 15 114 114 114
Questions Forecasted 1 28 39 39 39
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 4 42 42 42
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Why do you think you're right?

 1- Several countries in Europe have ordered or begun receiving PULS systems (Netherlands, Denmark, Germany, etc.), but none of these countries have made a formal public commitment to donate/give PULS systems to Ukraine by the end of 2025.

2- NATO official announcement: Germany has provided $500 million in funding under PURL; the packages will finance the purchase of equipment and ammunition from US stockpiles. The contents are not detailed.

3- Based on official statements about PURL (NATO/Germany (BMVg)/BAFA archives and related news), and official statements about PURL, no publicly available, official German/NATO/DSCA/DoD document has been found up to December 31, 2025, explicitly listing launchers such as the "M142 HIMARS" or "M270."

4- Ukrainian Presidency / Zelenskyy (September 30, 2025): PURL packages will contain “missiles for the Patriot and missiles/munitions for the HIMARS”—this refers to missiles/rockets, not launchers.

5- NATO official / Interfax report: PURL packages undergo SACEUR approval and “contents are not disclosed”—that is, the package contents are not detailed publicly.  (The statement is from an anonymous source.)

https://www.pravda.com.ua/rus/news/2025/08/05/7524826/?utm

https://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/1093549.html

6- BAFA / Notes on German export regulations: There are extension and export mechanisms for GEAs, but these do not constitute a commitment to launchers. (BAFA GEAs update sources).

I've done a lot of research and read the valuable insights here. I've concluded that there's no concrete data to date.

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Power Forecaster - Nov 2025

Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
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grainmummy
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Star Commenter - Nov 2025

Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
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 Confirmed previous forecast

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 Confirmed previous forecast  

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 Confirmed previous forecast

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grainmummy
made their 12th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
0% (0%)
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
0% (0%)
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
0% (0%)
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
100% (0%)
Not before 2026
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 Confirmed previous forecast  

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New Prediction
grainmummy
made their 11th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
100% (0%)
Less than 30 days
0% (0%)
30 days
0% (0%)
31-60 days
0% (0%)
61-90 days
0% (0%)
91 days or more
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 Confirmed previous forecast    

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