44th
Accuracy Rank

ctsats

Christos Iraklis Tsatsoulis
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Forecasted Questions
Open Closed Resolved

When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?

Forecast Count:
 28 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(13 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Dec 12, 2025 12:11PM UTC
(6 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025 0% 0%
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025 0% 0%
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025 0% 0%
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025 0% 2%
Not before 2026 100% 98%

Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 44 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(13 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Dec 13, 2025 03:21PM UTC
(5 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 1% Dec 13, 2025 to Jun 13, 2026 Jan 13, 2026 1%
No 99% Dec 13, 2025 to Jun 13, 2026 Jan 13, 2026 99%

Will the EU import at least 15 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia in any quarter of 2025?

Forecast Count:
 25 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(13 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Dec 13, 2025 03:21PM UTC
(5 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 0% 1%
No 100% 99%

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 55 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(13 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Dec 13, 2025 03:21PM UTC
(5 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 1% Dec 13, 2025 to Jun 13, 2026 Jan 13, 2026 1%
No 99% Dec 13, 2025 to Jun 13, 2026 Jan 13, 2026 99%

Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?

Forecast Count:
 39 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2030 05:00AM UTC
(4 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Dec 13, 2025 03:21PM UTC
(5 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 4% 7%
No 96% 93%

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 47 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(13 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Dec 13, 2025 03:21PM UTC
(5 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 1% Dec 13, 2025 to Jun 13, 2026 Jan 13, 2026 1%
No 99% Dec 13, 2025 to Jun 13, 2026 Jan 13, 2026 99%

Will the U.S. federal government enact legislation that substantively regulates or authorizes regulation of artificial intelligence systems or their development before 1 January 2026?

Forecast Count:
 29 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(13 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Dec 13, 2025 03:22PM UTC
(5 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 0% 1%
No 100% 99%

Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
 56 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Dec 13, 2025 03:22PM UTC
(5 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 3% 3%
No 97% 97%

Will a U.S. or U.S.-ally satellite be permanently disabled by another country or organization before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
 14 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Dec 13, 2025 03:22PM UTC
(5 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 4% 7%
No 96% 93%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
 68 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Dec 13, 2025 03:22PM UTC
(5 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Estonia 1% 3%
Latvia 1% 2%
Lithuania 1% 3%
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