Taiwan is home to 92% of the world’s most advanced semiconductor manufacturing capacity, so any disruption would impact global supply chains (Semiconductor Industry Association). Consequently, a blockade or invasion of Taiwan would cause serious damage to the world economy, with estimates suggesting that over two trillion dollars of economic activity would be at risk (Rhodium Group, CSIS).

Resolution Criteria: This question will be resolved using reputable news media reports. An invasion would entail an attempt by the People’s Liberation Army to land on, occupy, and/or capture the main island of Taiwan. A blockade would involve the use of ships or planes to prevent people and goods from entering or leaving Taiwan, thereby cutting off its access to the rest of the world. A blockade or invasion need not be successful for it to count towards the resolution of this question. For the purposes of this question, a military attack would require the use of weaponry by the People’s Liberation Army against a civilian or military target. A target on the main island of Taiwan must be hit for the attack to count towards resolution. Cyberattacks will not be considered towards the resolution of this question.