Still at 145.7M, 11.5 months into the question. Linear extrapolation gives 145.7/11.5*24=304M, well into the lowest bin. Adjusting accordingly.
-0.792833
Relative Brier Score
302
Forecasts
659
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 15 | 58 | 881 | 845 | 1654 |
| Comments | 9 | 46 | 1012 | 998 | 1923 |
| Questions Forecasted | 15 | 17 | 39 | 33 | 73 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 4 | 23 | 477 | 461 | 1549 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
38%
(+1%)
Less than $350 million
38%
(+1%)
More than or equal to $350 million but less than $500 million
19%
(-1%)
More than or equal to $500 million but less than $650 million
4%
(-1%)
More than or equal to $650 million but less than $800 million
1%
(0%)
More than or equal to $800 million
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
As before.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
7%
(+3%)
Yes
Dec 13, 2025 to Jun 13, 2027
93%
(-3%)
No
Dec 13, 2025 to Jun 13, 2027
Why do you think you're right?
Increasing, after @geoffodlum's unearthing below of an incident from Nov 2024 which could possibly resolve the question positively should it were related to the energy or transportation sectors.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
As before
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
19
0%
(0%)
18
1%
(0%)
17
99%
(0%)
16 or fewer
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Estonia
1%
(0%)
Latvia
1%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(0%)
Yes
96%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Yes
97%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 13, 2025 to Jun 13, 2026
99%
(0%)
No
Dec 13, 2025 to Jun 13, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(0%)
Yes
96%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Currently at 310.4M, with the latest addition on Dec 1.
Linear projection now gives 310.4/11.5*24=648M, still into the lowest bin.
Adjusting accordingly.
Why might you be wrong?
As before