The Q2 OECD reading was again revised slightly higher at 70.4; and we now have Q3 readings from Japan, Korea, Chile, and Israel (data explorer). Korea logged an all-time high reading (70.0), while Japan repeated its all-time high reading from Q2 when it exceeded 80.0 for the first time. Here is the summary so far:
In the first half of 2025, we have been practically stable at ~70.35
In order to end up in the [66,70) bin, the average of both Q3 and Q4 should be lower than 69.55.
Furthermore:
Preliminary data for Q3 suggest a picture qualitatively similar to the previous quarters, i.e. no big departure from the ~70.3 region
Assuming a ~70.35 reading for Q3 too, then in order to end up in the [66,70) bin, the Q4 reading should be ~68.75, i.e. a QoQ decrease of 1.60. For comparison, the largest QoQ decrease in the middle of the GFC was by 1.0, from 65.8 in 2008-Q4 to 64.8 in 2009-Q1
Why do you think you're right?
The Q2 OECD reading was again revised slightly higher at 70.4; and we now have Q3 readings from Japan, Korea, Chile, and Israel (data explorer). Korea logged an all-time high reading (70.0), while Japan repeated its all-time high reading from Q2 when it exceeded 80.0 for the first time. Here is the summary so far:
(last update: Dec 4)
As I have explained in more detail below:
Furthermore:
Why might you be wrong?
Black swans only, by now.