It may seem like a jump up, but actually it is not: downloading the data from the OECD data explorer (there does not seem to be any other way to see the numbers in full precision - only in FRED, which is not yet updated), we see that the reading moved from 70.34715 in Q1 to 70.35221 in Q2, i.e. a mere +0.005, which may look relatively big due to rounding. But I guess the real news is that it did not move down, not even slightly: so far in 2025, we are practically stable at ~70.35.
As I have already written below, in order to get a reading of 69.9% in our resolution source, the actual underlying value (5-digit precision) should be less than 69.950 (a value of 69.951 would be rounded to 70.0). Given that, and assuming no downward revisions of Q1 or Q2 (in fact, Q1 was revised slightly up, from 70.34432 to 70.34715), in order to have an annual reading of 69.9 in our resolution source, the average of both Q3 and Q4 should be lower than 69.55.
Again, this sounds like a huge drop, and I cannot see anything so far justifying such a scenario - we have already started getting Q3-related data from a handful of countries:
2024
Q1-2025
Q2-2025
H1-2025
diff.
July
August
Australia
77.1
77.2
77.2
77.2
+0.1
77.2
77.1
Canada
74.7
74.3
74.1
74.2
-0.5
74.0
73.8
Colombia
62.9
64.1
64.5
64.3
+1.4
64.8
64.0
Japan
79.4
79.9
80.1
80.0
+0.6
80.2
79.9
Korea
69.5
69.7
69.9
69.8
+0.3
69.9
69.8
USA
71.9
71.9
71.8
71.85
-0.05
71.6
71.6
OECD
70.2
70.3
70.4
70.35
+0.15
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Big data revisions downwards and big worsening of the situation in September and Q4.
Why do you think you're right?
The OECD Q2 reading just came in at 70.4: https://www.oecd.org/en/data/indicators/employment-rate.html?oecdcontrol-40985420ae-var3=2009
It may seem like a jump up, but actually it is not: downloading the data from the OECD data explorer (there does not seem to be any other way to see the numbers in full precision - only in FRED, which is not yet updated), we see that the reading moved from 70.34715 in Q1 to 70.35221 in Q2, i.e. a mere +0.005, which may look relatively big due to rounding. But I guess the real news is that it did not move down, not even slightly: so far in 2025, we are practically stable at ~70.35.
As I have already written below, in order to get a reading of 69.9% in our resolution source, the actual underlying value (5-digit precision) should be less than 69.950 (a value of 69.951 would be rounded to 70.0). Given that, and assuming no downward revisions of Q1 or Q2 (in fact, Q1 was revised slightly up, from 70.34432 to 70.34715), in order to have an annual reading of 69.9 in our resolution source, the average of both Q3 and Q4 should be lower than 69.55.
Again, this sounds like a huge drop, and I cannot see anything so far justifying such a scenario - we have already started getting Q3-related data from a handful of countries:
Why might you be wrong?