Confirmed previous forecast
0.328713
Relative Brier Score
19
Forecasts
11
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 13 | 60 | 879 | 843 | 1652 |
| Comments | 9 | 48 | 1010 | 996 | 1921 |
| Questions Forecasted | 13 | 17 | 39 | 33 | 73 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 5 | 23 | 477 | 461 | 1549 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
19
0%
(0%)
18
1%
(0%)
17
99%
(0%)
16 or fewer
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Estonia
1%
(0%)
Latvia
1%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(0%)
Yes
96%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Yes
97%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 13, 2025 to Jun 13, 2026
99%
(0%)
No
Dec 13, 2025 to Jun 13, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(0%)
Yes
96%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 13, 2025 to Jun 13, 2026
99%
(0%)
No
Dec 13, 2025 to Jun 13, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Increasing, after @geoffodlum's unearthing below of an incident from Nov 2024 which could possibly resolve the question positively should it were related to the energy or transportation sectors.
Why might you be wrong?
As before