Forecasted Questions
Will government agencies in the U.S., EU, or UK classify mirror biology research under dual-use oversight mechanisms by 31 December 2030?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 18, 2025 03:38AM UTC
(5 months ago)
Jul 18, 2025 03:38AM UTC
(5 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 50% | 45% | +5% | +16% |
| No | 50% | 55% | -5% | -16% |
Will any major international non-governmental research funders implement specific policies restricting or requiring oversight of mirror biology research by 31 December 2030?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 18, 2025 04:26AM UTC
(5 months ago)
Jul 18, 2025 04:26AM UTC
(5 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 55% | 46% | +9% | +9% |
| No | 45% | 54% | -9% | -9% |
Will mirror reagents or products be added to the Australia Group export control list or national controlled biological agent lists in the U.S., UK, or Canada by 31 December 2032?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 18, 2025 04:51AM UTC
(5 months ago)
Jul 18, 2025 04:51AM UTC
(5 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 55% | 28% | +27% | +2% |
| No | 45% | 72% | -27% | -2% |
Will scientists be able to assemble a ribosome in vitro, composed entirely of synthetic proteins and RNA, without the use of cell-derived materials by 2030?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 28, 2025 09:45PM UTC
(5 months ago)
Jul 28, 2025 09:45PM UTC
(5 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 45% | 38% | +7% | -22% |
| No | 55% | 62% | -7% | +22% |
Will mirror organisms be formally addressed as a biosecurity concern in official proceedings of at least one of the following international forums (BWC Review Conference, G7/G20 Health/Science ministerial meetings, WHO forums) by 31 December 2030?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 02, 2025 08:35PM UTC
(4 months ago)
Aug 02, 2025 08:35PM UTC
(4 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 60% | 63% | -3% | +2% |
| No | 40% | 37% | +3% | -2% |
Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2030 05:00AM UTC
(4 years from now)
Jan 01, 2030 05:00AM UTC
(4 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 01, 2025 05:41AM UTC
(3 months ago)
Oct 01, 2025 05:41AM UTC
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10% | 7% | +3% | -1% |
| No | 90% | 93% | -3% | +1% |
Will scientists successfully create a synthetic cell from chemically synthesized components by 1 January 2035?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 01, 2025 05:49AM UTC
(3 months ago)
Oct 01, 2025 05:49AM UTC
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | 10% | -5% | -2% |
| No | 95% | 90% | +5% | +2% |
Before 1 January 2029, will either the U.S. or UK enact a law granting tax incentives to companies that pass an independent security audit for their AI models?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2029 05:00AM UTC
(3 years from now)
Jan 01, 2029 05:00AM UTC
(3 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 01, 2025 06:04AM UTC
(3 months ago)
Oct 01, 2025 06:04AM UTC
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 30% | 20% | +10% | -6% |
| No | 70% | 80% | -10% | +6% |
Will the FDA have authorized a medical device that incorporates LLM-based functionality by 31 March 2026?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 11, 2025 05:56PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Nov 11, 2025 05:56PM UTC
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 3% | -2% | +2% |
| No | 99% | 97% | +2% | -2% |
Will the United States government implement new or expanded export controls or restrictions explicitly targeting frontier AI model development by 31 July 2026?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 06:16AM UTC
(14 days ago)
Dec 01, 2025 06:16AM UTC
(14 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 15% | 13% | +2% | -1% |
| No | 85% | 87% | -2% | +1% |