Forecasted Questions
Will the United States implement new or expanded export controls on advanced AI chips, cloud access to AI computing, and/or AI model weights in 2025?
Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts
10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 01, 2025 05:24AM UTC
(1 month ago)
Nov 01, 2025 05:24AM UTC
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 20% | 11% | +9% | -14% |
| No | 80% | 89% | -9% | +14% |
If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 01, 2025 05:27AM UTC
(1 month ago)
Nov 01, 2025 05:27AM UTC
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 30 days | 30% | 67% | -37% | +1% |
| 30 days | 12% | 6% | +6% | +0% |
| 31-60 days | 12% | 6% | +6% | 0% |
| 61-90 days | 12% | 5% | +7% | +0% |
| 91 days or more | 34% | 16% | +18% | -1% |
When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?
Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts
10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 01, 2025 05:30AM UTC
(1 month ago)
Nov 01, 2025 05:30AM UTC
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| 1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| 1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| 1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025 | 2% | 2% | +0% | -1% |
| Not before 2026 | 98% | 98% | +0% | +1% |
Will the FDA have authorized a medical device that incorporates LLM-based functionality by 31 March 2026?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 11, 2025 05:56PM UTC
(25 days ago)
Nov 11, 2025 05:56PM UTC
(25 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 4% | -3% | +2% |
| No | 99% | 96% | +3% | -2% |
Will Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces retake control over Khartoum city by 31 March 2026?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2025 09:01PM UTC
(6 days ago)
Nov 30, 2025 09:01PM UTC
(6 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10% | 3% | +7% | -1% |
| No | 90% | 97% | -7% | +1% |
Will at least two European NATO members sign new, publicly announced major defense procurement contracts (over €1 billion each) with non-European suppliers by 31 July 2026?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2025 10:13PM UTC
(6 days ago)
Nov 30, 2025 10:13PM UTC
(6 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 70% | 77% | -7% | +10% |
| No | 30% | 23% | +7% | -10% |
Will the United States government implement new or expanded export controls or restrictions explicitly targeting frontier AI model development by 31 July 2026?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 06:16AM UTC
(5 days ago)
Dec 01, 2025 06:16AM UTC
(5 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 15% | 12% | +3% | -1% |
| No | 85% | 88% | -3% | +1% |
Will Western Asia and North African intra-regional exports equal or exceed 24% of total exports in 2025 or 2026, according to UNCTAD data?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 06:26AM UTC
(5 days ago)
Dec 01, 2025 06:26AM UTC
(5 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 33% | 21% | +12% | +1% |
| No | 67% | 79% | -12% | -1% |
Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?
Forecast Count:
18 Forecasts
18 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 07:18AM UTC
(5 days ago)
Dec 01, 2025 07:18AM UTC
(5 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Togo | 5% | 4% | +1% | +0% |
| Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations | Answer was correct | |||
Will the EU import at least 15 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia in any quarter of 2025?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 07:24AM UTC
(5 days ago)
Dec 01, 2025 07:24AM UTC
(5 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 100% | 99% | +1% | +0% |