Forecasted Questions
Will a U.S. or U.S.-ally satellite be permanently disabled by another country or organization before 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 01, 2026 01:27AM UTC
(1 month ago)
Jan 01, 2026 01:27AM UTC
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | 7% | -4% | +0% |
| No | 97% | 93% | +4% | +0% |
Will the Houthis (Ansarallah movement) attack a commercial shipping vessel on the Red Sea between 19 December 2025 and 31 July 2026, inclusive?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 03, 2026 03:14AM UTC
(1 month ago)
Jan 03, 2026 03:14AM UTC
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 70% | 75% | -5% | +8% |
| No | 30% | 25% | +5% | -8% |
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
21 Forecasts
21 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 03, 2026 03:32AM UTC
(1 month ago)
Jan 03, 2026 03:32AM UTC
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 7% | 3% | +4% | +0% |
| Latvia | 7% | 2% | +5% | +0% |
| Lithuania | 8% | 2% | +6% | +0% |
Will China, Russia, the U.S., or the EU publicly announce new economic or trade sanctions that specifically target a state-owned oil or gas entity in Egypt, Jordan, or the United Arab Emirates (UAE) by 30 June 2026?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 08, 2026 01:06AM UTC
(25 days ago)
Jan 08, 2026 01:06AM UTC
(25 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 2% | -1% | -1% |
| No | 99% | 98% | +1% | +1% |
Will the United States government implement new or expanded export controls or restrictions explicitly targeting frontier AI model development by 31 July 2026?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 08, 2026 03:24PM UTC
(25 days ago)
Jan 08, 2026 03:24PM UTC
(25 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10% | 15% | -5% | -2% |
| No | 90% | 85% | +5% | +2% |
Will the FDA have authorized a medical device that incorporates LLM-based functionality by 31 March 2026?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 10, 2026 03:09AM UTC
(23 days ago)
Jan 10, 2026 03:09AM UTC
(23 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 2% | -1% | -2% |
| No | 99% | 98% | +1% | +2% |
Will Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces retake control over Khartoum city by 31 March 2026?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 17, 2026 02:48AM UTC
(16 days ago)
Jan 17, 2026 02:48AM UTC
(16 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 99% | 99% | +0% | +0% |
Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
19 Forecasts
19 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 17, 2026 04:36AM UTC
(16 days ago)
Jan 17, 2026 04:36AM UTC
(16 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 30% | 16% | +14% | -1% |
| No | 70% | 84% | -14% | +1% |
Will the United Nations Security Council adopt a resolution related to the conflict in Sudan by 1 May 2026?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
May 02, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
May 02, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 17, 2026 05:50AM UTC
(16 days ago)
Jan 17, 2026 05:50AM UTC
(16 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 47% | 45% | +2% | -17% |
| No | 53% | 55% | -2% | +17% |
Will Hezbollah and/or Amal Movement candidates maintain control of all Shia-majority seats in the 2026 Lebanese Parliament?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Jun 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 17, 2026 11:43PM UTC
(15 days ago)
Jan 17, 2026 11:43PM UTC
(15 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 70% | 74% | -4% | +1% |
| No | 30% | 26% | +4% | -1% |