belikewater

I'm repeating my forecast here to say that I am 99% certain that the peak value of the Case-Shiller index will be lower in 2026 than in 2025, because the value for July 2025 was less than the value for June 2025. If we exclude 2022 because of its extreme volatility (the highest in the index's entire history since 1987), then looking either at the entire history of the index, or just at from 2010 onward, seeing a July value less than a June value predicts a lower peak value the next year with 50% sensitivity and 100% specificity.

As I wrote in my first forecast on this question, "The index went up by ~6 [actually 6.003 from peak to peak] in the past year and ~13 the year before [more if you consider the period July-July, not just peak to peak]. 350-331 = 19, so this question is asking whether home valuations will continue to go up over the next couple years the way the have in the past couple years." If the index will reach a lower peak in 2026 than in 2025, then the question will be asking whether the index will go up by 19+ between its peak in June or July 2026, and July 2027. The only years in which the index has grown by more than 19 from July the year before through July of that year are 2005, 2021 and 2022; 2004 was close and gets an honorable mention. In other words, the only years that saw that much growth were right before the peak of the housing bubble and in the early years of Covid. (And the only years we saw the index fall by anything close to 19 were during the GFC, but even then, the index never fell by 19+ from June to June or July to July.) I think it would take extreme circumstances to see a similar rise between 2026 and 2027.

I will maintain a forecast of 10% for now, allowing for the possibility of extreme changes in 2026 and 2027, whether from a new pandemic or large-scale economic changes. 

I'm repeating my forecast to add Redfin's new analysis and predictions for next year. They expect that 2026 will be the start of the "Great Housing Reset," but still, they state, "We expect the median U.S. home-sale price to rise 1% year over year in 2026." As I discussed in my first forecast, the Case-Shiller index is a metric of the valuations of all existing homes, not of some median or mean sales price, and these are not the same. I don't think it's likely that the median US home sale price will grow in 2026, but it's not impossible; however, I think the peak value of the Case-Shiller index in 2026 will be lower than that in 2025.

Very little time is left for any large economic changes.

I'm repeating my forecast because no new information has changed my thinking.