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5
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0
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New Prediction
Will China, Russia, the U.S., or the EU publicly announce new economic or trade sanctions that specifically target a state-owned oil or gas entity in Egypt, Jordan, or the United Arab Emirates (UAE) by 30 June 2026?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
50%
(0%)
Yes
50%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
Yes
95%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Forecasting when any government will reach true AI dominance is extremely difficult. AI research and development improves daily. It is a fluid environment subject to numerous variables. AI development is uneven across nations. In China with a restrictive internet, it is likely to be different from AI developed in Europe or the Americas.
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Why might you be wrong?
The potential "Black Swan" event of an unexpected break thru event in a single nation. AI reaching consciousness or self-awareness.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
70%
(0%)
Yes
30%
(0%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
China has a naval base in Djibouti and has long term interested in African natural resources.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
China could change its investment focus to other regions of the World like Central and South America.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Estonia
5%
(0%)
Latvia
5%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
50%
(0%)
Yes
50%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
70%
(0%)
Yes
30%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
90%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files