Forecasted Questions
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 10, 2025 02:55PM UTC
(8 days ago)
Dec 10, 2025 02:55PM UTC
(8 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 5% | 3% | +2% | +0% |
| Latvia | 5% | 2% | +3% | +0% |
| Lithuania | 5% | 3% | +2% | +0% |
Will the European “Coalition of the Willing” deploy forces to Ukraine in 2025?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(14 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(14 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 16, 2025 04:33PM UTC
(2 days ago)
Dec 16, 2025 04:33PM UTC
(2 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10% | 1% | +9% | +0% |
| No | 90% | 99% | -9% | +0% |
Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 16, 2025 04:33PM UTC
(2 days ago)
Dec 16, 2025 04:33PM UTC
(2 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 70% | 17% | +53% | +0% |
| No | 30% | 83% | -53% | +0% |
Will the United States government implement new or expanded export controls or restrictions explicitly targeting frontier AI model development by 31 July 2026?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 16, 2025 04:33PM UTC
(2 days ago)
Dec 16, 2025 04:33PM UTC
(2 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 50% | 15% | +35% | +1% |
| No | 50% | 85% | -35% | -1% |
Will China, Russia, the U.S., or the EU publicly announce new economic or trade sanctions that specifically target a state-owned oil or gas entity in Egypt, Jordan, or the United Arab Emirates (UAE) by 30 June 2026?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 16, 2025 04:33PM UTC
(2 days ago)
Dec 16, 2025 04:33PM UTC
(2 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | 2% | +3% | 0% |
| No | 95% | 98% | -3% | 0% |