Review Question
What will the NASDAQ-100 Technology Sector Index (NDXT) closing value be on December 31, 2026?
| Answer | Initial Probability |
|---|---|
| Less than 13600 | 39% |
| Between 13600 and 15150, inclusive | 27% |
| More than 15150 | 34% |
About the Nasdaq-100 Technology Sector Index
"The Nasdaq-100 Technology Sector Index is an equal weighted index based on the securities of the Nasdaq-100 Index that are classified as Technology according to the Industry Classification Benchmark (ICB) classification system. On February 22, 2006, the Nasdaq-100 Technology Sector Index began with a base value of 1000.00" (NASDAQ-100 Technology Sector).
Technology Sector Outlooks
The outlook for 2026 is shaped by a set of supportive macroeconomic forces that underlie broad corporate profitability and, by extension, equity indexes. According to Nasdaq economists, there are three principal tailwinds driving this outlook:
- Lower interest rates
- Broadening spending growth
- Artificial Intelligence
Together, these forces suggest moderate but widespread growth in 2026 favorable for corporate profitability and sustained equity performance (3 Tailwinds for 2026).
By contrast, some equity strategists and economists warn that persistent inflation and sticky prices could undermine this narrative. Elevated inflation may force central banks to slow or even reverse expected rate cuts, tightening financial conditions and weighing on valuations for growth-oriented technology companies (AI-driven inflation). Cautionary outlooks also point out that much of the anticipated good news is already reflected in current equity valuations (Will 2026 Tame the Bull?).
Resolution Criteria
This question will be resolved using the NASDAQ-100 Technology Sector Index (NDXT). The outcome is determined by the NDXT closing price on December 31, 2026, according to the bins specified.