Pros: Usually questions regarding a possible invasion of Taiwan are looking at a much shorter timeframe. This can lead to very low probability forecasts and miss the larger question of whether China with Xi, or even a post-Xi China will attempt unification by violent means in the relatively near future. This 4 year period allows more broad thinking and scenarios to be included in the comments. Cons: The resolution period is long enough that some forecasters may not be interested to participate, unless required, due to the effort required with the resolution date so far into the future. Usually 1 year is the maximum time to inspire enough forecasters to engage in the question and to regularly update their work. Of course if they think China will invade in the next year or two, the interest may be higher. Another challenge is that the longer the timeframe, the less accurate forecasts are likely to be. I don't think this is a good reason to avoid the question because comments may be informative and shifts in the aggregate forecast may serve as a barometer of risk.
Review Question
Will China invade Taiwan before 2030? The reason is that Xi Jinping is age 72, date of birth June 15, 1953. By 2030 he will be 77. Also, by 2030 will reach the goal of tech reliance, "green growth" and "Healthy China 2023." This means less reliance on Western nations for technology and energy. It is likely that Xi Jinping will like to unify all China when he is healthy, in control of the country. It is unlikely to wait until he is older to achieve the one China goal.
| Answer | Initial Probability |
|---|---|
| Yes China will take Taiwan no later than 2030. | 80% |
| No China will not take Taiwan by 2030 | 20% |
Author
Description
See China 2030 strategy.
Starts
Dec 09, 2025 03:01PM UTC
Closes
May 30, 2026 02:01PM UTC
Topics
U.S.-China
China Politics, Relations, and Technology
Geopolitical Security
Tags
East Asia Security
Comments
Files