Review Question

Will China invade Taiwan before 2030? The reason is that Xi Jinping is age 72, date of birth June 15, 1953. By 2030 he will be 77. Also, by 2030 will reach the goal of tech reliance, "green growth" and "Healthy China 2023." This means less reliance on Western nations for technology and energy. It is likely that Xi Jinping will like to unify all China when he is healthy, in control of the country. It is unlikely to wait until he is older to achieve the one China goal.

Answer	Initial Probability
Yes China will take Taiwan no later than 2030.	80%
No China will not take Taiwan by 2030	20%