RAND Forecasting Initiative

Question

Crowd Forecast

Will Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces retake control over Khartoum city by 31 March 2026?

Closing Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC · 40 · 64

3%

Chance

Will at least two European NATO members sign new, publicly announced major defense procurement contracts (over €1 billion each) with non-European suppliers by 31 July 2026?

Closing Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC · 24 · 39

75%

Chance

How many of the 19 G20 member countries will have recognized the State of Palestine before 1 Feb 2026?

Closing Feb 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 37 · 62

Will Western Asia and North African intra-regional exports equal or exceed 24% of total exports in 2025 or 2026, according to UNCTAD data?

Closing Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC · 30 · 60

21%

Chance

Will China, Russia, the U.S., or the EU publicly announce new economic or trade sanctions that specifically target a state-owned oil or gas entity in Egypt, Jordan, or the United Arab Emirates (UAE) by 30 June 2026?

Closing Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC · 50 · 105

2%

Chance

Will a new multilateral security agreement involving at least three Middle East and North Africa (MENA) states (excluding Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Israel) be publicly announced by 30 June 2026?

Closing Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC · 52 · 149

11%

Chance

What will the U.S. Space Force budget be in the FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 48 · 145

Will the EU import at least 15 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia in any quarter of 2025?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 116 · 509

1%

Chance

Will at least one European country or the European Union (EU) collectively commit to providing Ukraine with HIMARS-compatible rocket artillery systems or functional substitutes by 31 December 2025?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 87 · 416

19%

Chance

How much more military aid will European countries allocate to Ukraine compared to the U.S. between 24 January 2022 and 31 December 2025?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 43 · 242

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Will Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces retake control over Khartoum city by 31 March 2026?

3%

Will at least two European NATO members sign new, publicly announced major defense procurement contracts (over €1 billion each) with non-European suppliers by 31 July 2026?

75%

How many of the 19 G20 member countries will have recognized the State of Palestine before 1 Feb 2026?

Will Western Asia and North African intra-regional exports equal or exceed 24% of total exports in 2025 or 2026, according to UNCTAD data?

21%

Will China, Russia, the U.S., or the EU publicly announce new economic or trade sanctions that specifically target a state-owned oil or gas entity in Egypt, Jordan, or the United Arab Emirates (UAE) by 30 June 2026?

2%

Will a new multilateral security agreement involving at least three Middle East and North Africa (MENA) states (excluding Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Israel) be publicly announced by 30 June 2026?

11%

What will the U.S. Space Force budget be in the FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act?

Will the EU import at least 15 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia in any quarter of 2025?

1%

Will at least one European country or the European Union (EU) collectively commit to providing Ukraine with HIMARS-compatible rocket artillery systems or functional substitutes by 31 December 2025?

19%

How much more military aid will European countries allocate to Ukraine compared to the U.S. between 24 January 2022 and 31 December 2025?

Status

Season

Sort By

Filter By

Topics

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3%

75%

21%

2%

11%

1%

19%