RAND Forecasting Initiative

Question

Crowd Forecast

Will the FDA have authorized a medical device that incorporates LLM-based functionality by 31 March 2026?

Closing Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC · 55 · 80

4%

Chance

Will the United States government implement new or expanded export controls or restrictions explicitly targeting frontier AI model development by 31 July 2026?

Closing Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC · 34 · 42

13%

Chance

Before 1 January 2029, will either the U.S. or UK enact a law granting tax incentives to companies that pass an independent security audit for their AI models?

Closing Jan 01, 2029 05:00AM UTC · 39 · 76

20%

Chance

Will a U.S. or non-U.S. entity train an artificial intelligence model at least 10^27 computational operations (FLOPs) before 1 June 2027?

Closing Jun 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC · 34 · 87

What will the total amount of seed funding for biotech startups in the EU, UK, and Switzerland be in 2025 and 2026 combined, according to Labiotech?

Closing Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC · 25 · 103

What will the total amount of seed funding for biotech startups in the U.S. be in 2025 and 2026 combined, according to Labiotech?

Closing Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC · 24 · 98

What will the total amount of seed funding for biotech startups globally be in 2025 and 2026 combined, according to Labiotech?

Closing Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC · 21 · 98

How many people will earn research doctorates in microbiology and immunology fields in the U.S. between the 2026 and 2030 academic years?

Closing Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC · 35 · 105

Will scientists be able to assemble a ribosome in vitro, composed entirely of synthetic proteins and RNA, without the use of cell-derived materials by 2030?

Closing Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC · 39 · 161

36%

Chance

Will any major international non-governmental research funders implement specific policies restricting or requiring oversight of mirror biology research by 31 December 2030?

Closing Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC · 33 · 128

47%

Chance

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Will the FDA have authorized a medical device that incorporates LLM-based functionality by 31 March 2026?

4%

Will the United States government implement new or expanded export controls or restrictions explicitly targeting frontier AI model development by 31 July 2026?

13%

Before 1 January 2029, will either the U.S. or UK enact a law granting tax incentives to companies that pass an independent security audit for their AI models?

20%

Will a U.S. or non-U.S. entity train an artificial intelligence model at least 10^27 computational operations (FLOPs) before 1 June 2027?

What will the total amount of seed funding for biotech startups in the EU, UK, and Switzerland be in 2025 and 2026 combined, according to Labiotech?

What will the total amount of seed funding for biotech startups in the U.S. be in 2025 and 2026 combined, according to Labiotech?

What will the total amount of seed funding for biotech startups globally be in 2025 and 2026 combined, according to Labiotech?

How many people will earn research doctorates in microbiology and immunology fields in the U.S. between the 2026 and 2030 academic years?

Will scientists be able to assemble a ribosome in vitro, composed entirely of synthetic proteins and RNA, without the use of cell-derived materials by 2030?

36%

Will any major international non-governmental research funders implement specific policies restricting or requiring oversight of mirror biology research by 31 December 2030?

47%

Status

Season

Sort By

Filter By

Topics

Tags

4%

13%

20%

36%

47%