RAND Forecasting Initiative

Status

Season

Sort By

Filter By

Featured Questions

Topics

Select All

Emerging Technology (15) only
Geopolitical Security (24) only
Quickfire Forecasts (16) only
Russia-Ukraine War (12) only

Crowd Forecast

Will scientists be able to assemble a ribosome in vitro, composed entirely of synthetic proteins and RNA, without the use of cell-derived materials by 2030?

Closing Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC · 6 · 6

50%

Chance

Will any major international non-governmental research funders implement specific policies restricting or requiring oversight of mirror biology research by 31 December 2030?

Closing Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC · 13 · 15

39%

Chance

Will mirror reagents or products be added to the Australia Group export control list or national controlled biological agent lists in the U.S., UK, or Canada by 31 December 2032?

Closing Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC · 6 · 8

37%

Chance

Will mirror organisms be formally addressed as a biosecurity concern in official proceedings of at least one of the following international forums (BWC Review Conference, G7/G20 Health/Science ministerial meetings, WHO forums) by 31 December 2030?

Closing Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC · 4 · 7

30%

Chance

Will government agencies in the U.S., EU, or UK classify mirror biology research under dual-use oversight mechanisms by 31 December 2030?

Closing Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC · 6 · 8

37%

Chance

Will scientists successfully create a synthetic cell from chemically synthesized components by 1 January 2035?

Closing Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC · 14 · 18

5%

Chance

Will the U.S. federal government enact legislation that substantively regulates or authorizes regulation of artificial intelligence systems or their development before 1 January 2026?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 68 · 172

1%

Chance

Will the United States implement new or expanded export controls on advanced AI chips, cloud access to AI computing, and/or AI model weights in 2025?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 41 · 110

59%

Chance

What will the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index score for OpenAI’s highest scoring model be on 31 December 2025?

Closing Dec 31, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 28 · 76

What will the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index score for DeepSeek’s highest scoring model be on 31 December 2025?

Closing Dec 31, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 29 · 100