Will a protein of at least 400 amino acids in length be successfully produced in a laboratory setting using automated chemical synthesis and verified by 31 December 2030?

Started Jan 23, 2025 06:00PM UTC
Closing Feb 12, 2025 04:59AM UTC

Protein synthesis is a complex process that typically occurs within living cells. However, recent advances in chemical synthesis techniques and AI-driven models are allowing researchers to artificially produce and design protein sequences outside of biological systems, opening up new frontiers in biotechnology and scientific research (phys.org, Briefings in Bioinformatics).

The ability to design proteins from scratch could revolutionize our understanding of molecular biology and enable breakthrough innovations in drug development, synthetic biology, and advanced materials.

The longest protein chain synthesized using automated chemical synthesis was 164 amino acids long. This achievement, made by researchers at MIT, represented a significant advancement in the field of protein synthesis, as it dramatically reduced the time required to produce long protein chains. For context, the majority of proteins found in the human body are up to 400 amino acids long (MIT News).

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Resolution Criteria:
This is an unscored question that closes for forecasting on 11 February 2025. Although this is an unscored question, we outline the theoretical resolution criteria here.

This question would be resolved based on peer-reviewed scientific publications, credible industry reports, or official announcements from reputable research institutions or biotechnology companies. To count towards a “Yes” resolution:
  • The protein must be at least 400 amino acids in length and produced entirely through automated chemical synthesis, without the use of biological systems for any part of the synthesis process.
  • The synthesis and structure of the protein must be verified in a laboratory setting with results published in a peer-reviewed scientific journal or presented at a major scientific conference with supporting documentation.
  • The synthesis must be completed and verified by 31 December 2030.
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