In an era where traditional espionage methods are increasingly constrained, the United States must adapt. One key tool may be the integration of probabilistic forecasting into existing open-source intelligence (OSINT) methods, which could help mitigate the gaps left by diminished HUMINT capabilities. Both methods have proven track records that could help the United States monitor, predict, plan, and respond to global strategic developments.
OSINT is no longer a peripheral tool; it is rapidly becoming a central pillar of modern intelligence. RAND research has consistently highlighted OSINT's growing relevance, driven by the increasing availability of open-source data—ranging from social media feeds to commercial datasets. These data sources, once considered secondary or tertiary sources of key information, may now offer critical insights into adversaries' activities, public sentiment, and emerging trends.
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