Mitigating Emerging Human Intelligence Challenges with Forecasting

Author
David Stebbins, Marie Jones, Anthony Vassalo
Published
Jun 09, 2025 12:38PM UTC
Human intelligence (HUMINT) has long been an informational cornerstone of the U.S. Intelligence Community (IC), providing crucial insights into the intentions and actions of foreign adversaries. Yet, as highlighted in a recent Washington Post article, the CIA's ability to recruit and leverage human sources abroad may be facing significant challenges. This reported decline in HUMINT capabilities has significant implications for U.S. national security.

In an era where traditional espionage methods are increasingly constrained, the United States must adapt. One key tool may be the integration of probabilistic forecasting into existing open-source intelligence (OSINT) methods, which could help mitigate the gaps left by diminished HUMINT capabilities. Both methods have proven track records that could help the United States monitor, predict, plan, and respond to global strategic developments.

OSINT is no longer a peripheral tool; it is rapidly becoming a central pillar of modern intelligence. RAND research has consistently highlighted OSINT's growing relevance, driven by the increasing availability of open-source data—ranging from social media feeds to commercial datasets. These data sources, once considered secondary or tertiary sources of key information, may now offer critical insights into adversaries' activities, public sentiment, and emerging trends.

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