It's the fighting season and Russia is continuing to make incremental gains. We may see a temporary ceasefire but the underlying issue of Ukraine wanting security guarantees and Russia wanting to avoid any NATO country involvement seems difficult to resolve, so it is unlikely to be quick to resolve.
As we get towards winter the pace of operations will slow down. This would be a more natural time for a ceasefire to be agreed (if it hasn't already by this point).
But I think the weight of probability is for this to remain an intractable problem. Russia seemed very resistant to giving Ukraine any breathing room, particularly while they think their sustained pressure is resulting in advances on the ground.
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Why might you be wrong?
It's difficult to distinguish Russian strong-man rhetoric from signals of actual intent. It could be that a temporary ceasefire is agreed very soon (tomorrow?!), despite the rhetorical bluster.
With Ukraine having accepted the US terms for an immediate ceasefire, this would seem to come down to the decision of one man - Putin. Who knows what he really thinks about this issue...
Why do you think you're right?
A very difficult question.
Progress currently appears to have stalled, but the push from the US to get something agreed is continuing, with another call between Trump and Putin scheduled for tomorrow.
It's the fighting season and Russia is continuing to make incremental gains. We may see a temporary ceasefire but the underlying issue of Ukraine wanting security guarantees and Russia wanting to avoid any NATO country involvement seems difficult to resolve, so it is unlikely to be quick to resolve.
As we get towards winter the pace of operations will slow down. This would be a more natural time for a ceasefire to be agreed (if it hasn't already by this point).
But I think the weight of probability is for this to remain an intractable problem. Russia seemed very resistant to giving Ukraine any breathing room, particularly while they think their sustained pressure is resulting in advances on the ground.
Why might you be wrong?
It's difficult to distinguish Russian strong-man rhetoric from signals of actual intent. It could be that a temporary ceasefire is agreed very soon (tomorrow?!), despite the rhetorical bluster.
With Ukraine having accepted the US terms for an immediate ceasefire, this would seem to come down to the decision of one man - Putin. Who knows what he really thinks about this issue...