Although there is an analysis from CEPA that the U.S. and Ukraine have agreed to a 30-day ceasefire, where the U.S. plays a role in providing military support, it is still a question whether Russia will positively respond to it. Therefore, the ceasefire might just be symbolic rather than an actual “action on the To-Do List.” Meanwhile, it could also be a conditional and diplomatic strategy even if it ultimately reaches an agreement on a ceasefire. On the other hand, Russia might take the ceasefire as a window to rebuild its forces and later come back with a more significant punch.
Recently, Trump and Zelensky argued intensively over the minerals while Zelensky emphasized his concern for security. America’s benefits would be President Trump's first and foremost priority, and it is possible that Zelensky perceives the treaty or agreement as unstable and fragile. Notably, if there is an economic or strategic shift in the U.S., changes could be triggered. For example, re-engagement with Russia.
The ceasefire of the Ukraine-Russia War could be viewed as a political achievement of President Trump, which gives credit to the United States as the “global leader.” Therefore, the U.S. might be motivated to promote a long-term ceasefire as a foreign policy strategy. China might also play a similar role in the case, promoting stability in global markets. At the same time, the international community (especially multilaterials like the United Nations) could continuously push towards a long-term ceasefire as well.
Russia and Ukraine could also prefer a longer-term ceasefire as they gradually lose more and more power while experiencing a significant financial shortage. Domestically, the ceasefire might be the best option for both sides, particularly to avoid further internal instability.
Why do you think you're right?
Although there is an analysis from CEPA that the U.S. and Ukraine have agreed to a 30-day ceasefire, where the U.S. plays a role in providing military support, it is still a question whether Russia will positively respond to it. Therefore, the ceasefire might just be symbolic rather than an actual “action on the To-Do List.” Meanwhile, it could also be a conditional and diplomatic strategy even if it ultimately reaches an agreement on a ceasefire. On the other hand, Russia might take the ceasefire as a window to rebuild its forces and later come back with a more significant punch.
Recently, Trump and Zelensky argued intensively over the minerals while Zelensky emphasized his concern for security. America’s benefits would be President Trump's first and foremost priority, and it is possible that Zelensky perceives the treaty or agreement as unstable and fragile. Notably, if there is an economic or strategic shift in the U.S., changes could be triggered. For example, re-engagement with Russia.
References (Additional Research):
Trump accuses Ukraine’s Zelensky of ‘trying to back out’ of proposed minerals deal
Ukraine Ceasefire Deal — What Does it Mean?
Why might you be wrong?
The ceasefire of the Ukraine-Russia War could be viewed as a political achievement of President Trump, which gives credit to the United States as the “global leader.” Therefore, the U.S. might be motivated to promote a long-term ceasefire as a foreign policy strategy. China might also play a similar role in the case, promoting stability in global markets. At the same time, the international community (especially multilaterials like the United Nations) could continuously push towards a long-term ceasefire as well.
Russia and Ukraine could also prefer a longer-term ceasefire as they gradually lose more and more power while experiencing a significant financial shortage. Domestically, the ceasefire might be the best option for both sides, particularly to avoid further internal instability.